通用航空气象灾害监测与预报预警技术新进展  

Forecasting and early warning technology development for general aviation meteorological hazards

作　　者：吴昊[1,2] 徐琪 曹阳 慕熙昱 王体健[5] 严殊祺 杨华栋 花家嘉 WU Hao;XU Qi;CAO Yang;MU Xiyu;WANG Tijian;YAN Shuqi;YANG Huadong;HUA Jiajia(Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration,Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing 210041,China;China Meteorological Administration Xiong'an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory,Xiong'an 071700,China;Jiangsu Air Traffic Management Branch Bureau of CAAC,Nanjing 210000,China;School of Construction Engineering,Jiangsu Open University,Nanjing 210036,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210046,China)

机构地区：[1]南京气象科技创新研究院中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室,江苏南京210041 [2]中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室,河北雄安071700 [3]中国民用航空华东地区空中交通管理局江苏分局,江苏南京210000 [4]江苏开放大学建筑工程学院,江苏南京210036 [5]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2025年第2期340-351,共12页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室开放课题项目(2023LABL-B17);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J116);中国气象局城市气象重点开放实验室开放基金项目(LUM-2023-15);江苏省气象局科研项目(ZD202413);北极阁基金项目(BJG202102);国家自然科学基金项目(42205197)。

摘　　要：随着“一带一路”背景下通用航空发展战略的实施与国家低空空域管理的改革,我国通用航空行业进入快速发展期,与之相匹配的专用机场建设需求呈现爆发式增长。低空天气预报和气象灾害监测成为影响通用航空发展的关键因素。本文通过梳理、比较已有研究成果,总结国内外通用航空气象灾害监测与预报预警技术的发展成果,以期为后续相关研究提供理论参考与经验借鉴。本文通过文献调研法与特征归纳法,对比分析并归纳总结了当前通用航空气象预报服务的研究进展与实践成果。文章具体从通用航空气象预报业务现状、影响通用航空安全的主要气象灾害要素、气象灾害的预报预警技术和通用航空气象服务的发展等4个方面梳理了已有国内外相关研究成果。后续有必要从通用航空相关气象灾害生消机理、监测预报预警技术研发、业务流程及相关政策法规工作等方面开展研究,进一步完善通用航空气象灾害预报预警系统,为全面推进公共运输航空与通用航空的战略部署提供坚实的科学基础和理论依据。General aviation(GA)has experienced significant growth in China since its formal definition in 1986.The enactment of the Civil Aviation Law of the People's Republic of China in 1995 further clarified GA as civil aviation activities outside public air transport,encompassing industrial,agricultural,humanitarian,and emergency services.This expansion has been driven by improvements in industry regulations,infrastructure development,and ongoing airspace reforms.However,meteorological services for GA remain a critical area for improvement.The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake underscored the vital role of GA in disaster relief,despite limitations in communication and meteorological support.Since then,GA has expanded into various sectors,including tourism,mapping,and logistics,making substantial contributions to economic and social development.By the end of 2022,China had 399 registered GA airports and 3186 aircraft,with projections indicating an increase to 500 airports and 4.5 million flight hours by 2025.This rapid growth necessitates enhanced meteorological services tailored to GA operations.Unlike commercial aviation,GA represents unique meteorological challenges due to diverse aircraft types,variable flight altitudes,and a heavy reliance on low-altitude weather conditions.These factors require highly localized,precise meteorological forecasts.However,China's current GA meteorological infrastructure is limited by insufficient observational equipment,incomplete data coverage,and inadequate forecasting capabilities——particularly for low-altitude operations.Internationally,significant advancements have been made in GA meteorological services.Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)systems have improved through higher-resolution models and advanced data assimilation techniques.Observational technologies,such as Doppler radar and lidar,provide high-resolution data,enhancing forecast accuracy.Studies have demonstrated that advanced NWP systems and data assimilation techniques can significantly improve forecasts of small-scale weathe

关 键 词：通用航空 气象灾害 预报预警 航空气象服务 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]