基于因果森林的低碳试点政策效应及异质性分析  

Analysis of Low-carbon Pilot Policy Effects and Heterogeneity Based on Causal Forests

作　　者：李淑玉 胡二琴[1] LI Shuyu;HU Erqin(School of Faculty of Science,Hubei Univ.of Tech.,Wuhan 430068,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学理学院,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《湖北工业大学学报》2025年第2期107-113,共7页Journal of Hubei University of Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(22BTJ042)。

摘　　要：利用正交因果森林对政策效应进行反事实推断,结果显示低碳试点政策具有减排作用,然而政策存在显著的异质性;采用基于路径、经济因素分组的t检验和K-W检验分析异质性来源,结果显示碳排放试点政策在人均生产总值高、公共支出多、城市消费能力强、高校密集、绿色创新技术发展快、第三产业占比高的城市更有效,启示未来政策应向华北、西南及西北地区的城市倾斜,并应围绕产业转型、能源转型、人才培养与技术研发等方向推进。The results of counterfactual extrapolation of policy effects using orthogonal causal forests showed that low carbon pilot policies have emission reduction effects,but there is significant heterogeneity in policies.Using the t-test and the K W test based on pathway,economic factors grouping to analyze the sources of heterogeneity,the results showed that the carbon emission pilot policy is more effective in cities with high per capita GDP,high public expenditure,strong urban consumption capacity,dense universities,rapid development of green innovative technologies,and high proportion of tertiary industry,suggesting that future policies should be tilted towards cities in northern,southwestern and northwestern China,and should promote industrial transformation,energy transformation,talent training and technology research and development.The research conclusions provided some references and enlightenments for the implementation of carbon emission policies in the future.

关 键 词：碳排放试点政策 因果推断 正交因果森林 异质性分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]