数字经济对创业的赋能效应研究——基于机器学习与SHAP分析的实证检验  

Research on the Empowering Effect of Digital Economy on Entrepreneurship——An Empirical Test Based on Machine Learning and SHAP Analysiso

作　　者：姜诗尧 李川泉 JIANG Shiyao;LI Chuanquan(School of Business Administration,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学工商管理学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期55-62,79,共9页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：甘肃省教育厅研究生“创新之星”项目“甘肃省专精特新中小企业对新质生产力的提升路径研究-AutoML和fsQCA的结合视角”(2025CXZX-890)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2022年中国30个省级行政区的面板数据,通过机器学习的随机森林回归模型并引入SHAP分析方法,实证分析了数字经济对创业的赋能效应。研究发现:(1)数字经济显著提升了我国各省域的创业活跃度与创业质量;(2)数字经济的数字产业化、产业数字化和信息基础设施等维度对于创业活跃度与创业质量具有差异化赋能作用。提出持续促进数字经济创新动能;提升信息基础设施利用效率;加速释放数字产业化发展潜能;推动数字与实体产业深度融合,以期构建全产业链发展模式,提升创业活跃度和竞争力。Based on the panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2022,this paper empirically analyzed the empowering effect of digital economy on entrepreneurship thorugh the use of the random forest regression model of machine learning and the introduction of SHAP analysis method.The findings are as follows:(1)Digital economy has significantly improved the entrepreneurial activity and quality of all provinces in China;(2)The dimensions of digital economy,such as digital industrialization,industrial digitalization and information infrastructure,have differentiated empowering effects on entrepreneurial activity and entrepreneurial quality.Therefore,it is suggested to continue to promote the innovation momentum of the digital economy,improve the efficiency of information infrastructure,accelerate the release of digital industrialization development potential,promote the deep integration of digital and physical industries,in order to build the development model of the whole industrial chain,and enhance the entrepreneurial activity and competitiveness.

关 键 词：数字经济 创业活跃度 创业质量 机器学习 SHAP分析 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]