电化学储能电站运行风险评价模型与应用研究  

Research on operation risk assessment model and application of electrochemical energy storage power station

作　　者：陈西江[1] 毛晓萱 胡少华[1] CHEN Xijiang;MAO Xiaoxuan;HU Shaohua(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第4期1257-1266,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271026)。

摘　　要：为提升电化学储能电站风险管控水平和本质安全能力,研究基于等级全息模型(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling,HHM)建立电化学储能电站运行风险评价指标体系,包括人员因素、电池因素、环境因素、管理因素4个一级指标,以及壳体破损、荷电状态等20个二级指标。运用最优最劣法(Best-Worst Method,BWM)和改进CRITIC(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation)法确定评价指标的主客观权重,利用博弈论方法计算评价指标的组合权重,并应用二维云模型通过仿真分析确定风险指标等级,构建了基于BWM-改进CRITIC-二维云模型的电化学储能电站运行风险评价模型。工程应用结果显示:永川松溉储能电站运行风险等级为Ⅲ级,处于一般风险。该电站电池荷电状态和单体间温度不一致的概率等级、后果等级风险云数字特征较高,分别为5.05、6.58和5.87、5.78,二者在风险管控中应处于核心地位。To enhance the risk management level and inherent safety capability of electrochemical energy storage power stations,this study establishes a risk evaluation index system for the operation of electrochemical energy storage power stations based on Hierarchical Holographic Modeling(HHM).This index system includes four primary indicators:personnel factors,battery factors,environmental factors,and management factors,as well as 20 secondary indicators such as shell damage and state of charge.Using the Best-Worst Method(BWM)and the improved Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC),the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators were determined.The combination weights of the evaluation indicators were calculated using game theory methods,and the risk indicator levels were determined through simulation analysis using a two-dimensional cloud model.As a result,an electrochemical energy storage power station operational risk evaluation model based on the BWM-improved CRITIC-two-dimensional cloud model was developed.Finally,the engineering application results indicate that the operational risk level of the Yongchuan Songgai Energy Storage Power Station is LevelⅢ,classified as general risk,and the risk evaluation results are consistent with the actual survey findings.Among the four dimensions of personnel,battery,environment,and management,the weights of the battery and environment are the largest,at 0.4182 and 0.2958,respectively;among the 20 secondary indicators,the weights of casing damage and state of charge are the largest,at 0.1460 and 0.0925,respectively.Because the probability risk level and consequence risk level of the state of charge and temperature inconsistency between individual cells are both higher than those of other indicators,the above indicates that factors such as casing damage,state of charge,and temperature inconsistency between cells in the battery are key factors leading to operational risks in the power station.So these should be at the core of risk management

关 键 词：安全工程 储能电站 风险评价 二维云模型 

分 类 号：X934[环境科学与工程—安全科学]