中国五大流域新质生产力与绿色发展耦合匹配性研究  

Research on the Coupling Coordination Between New Quality Productive Forces and Green Development in China's Five Major River Basins

作　　者：吴旭晓[1] WU Xuxiao

机构地区：[1]河南省社会科学院统计与管理科学研究所

出　　处：《当代经济》2025年第5期27-38,共12页Contemporary Economics

基　　金：2024年度河南省哲学社会科学一般项目,河南省新质生产力的统计测度及其经济“提质增量”效应研究,编号:2024BJJ024。

摘　　要：厘清新质生产力与绿色发展之间的耦合匹配性对流域中国式现代化实践具有导向作用。基于2013—2022年我国五大流域27个省(自治区、直辖市)数据,运用改进的耦合协调度、匹配度、灰色综合关联度和障碍度模型测算和分析新质生产力与绿色发展耦合匹配情况。结果表明:27个省(自治区、直辖市)新质生产力指数均值全部低于各自绿色发展指数均值;五大流域新质生产力水平都呈现斜“√”型演变态势;新质生产力与绿色发展耦合协调度由高到低依次为海河、长江、珠江、黄河和松花江流域;流域新质生产力与绿色发展匹配情况不断改善,部分省份耦合协调度与匹配度演变态势并不一致;新型劳动者和生态宜居是流域新质生产力与绿色发展耦合匹配的关键促进因素,环境建治是主要制约短板。Clarifying the coupling coordination between new quality productive forces and green development will guide the practice of advancing Chinese-style modernization in river basins.Based on data from 27 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities directly under the central government across five major river basins in China from 2013 to 2022,this study employed improved models of coupling coordination degree,compatibility index,grey comprehensive correlation degree,and obstacle diagnosis to calculate and analyze the coupling coordination between new quality productive forces and green development.The results reveal that the average new quality productive forces index of all 27 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities directly under the central government lags behind their respective green development indices.The evolution of new quality productive forces levels across the five major river basins follows an oblique“√”-shaped trajectory.The coupling coordination degree of new quality productive forces and green development ranks as follows(highest to lowest):Haihe River,Yangtze River,Pearl River,Yellow River and Songhua River basins.While basin-wide compatibility between new quality productive forces and green development has improved,discrepancies exist between coupling coordination and compatibility trends in certain provinces.Innovative human capital and ecological livability emerge as key drivers of this coupling,whereas environmental governance remains a critical constraint.

关 键 词：新质生产力 绿色发展 耦合协调度 灰色综合关联度 

分 类 号：F061.1[经济管理—政治经济学] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]