供应商生产服务水平驱动的质量涟漪效应下跨国采购决策  

Transnational Procurement Decisions under the Influence of Production Level with Quality Rippling Effects

作　　者：刘冬 李胃胜 陈杰 陈志祥[3] Liu Dong;Li Weisheng;Chen Jie;Chen Zhixiang(School of Information Engineering,Hainan Tropical Ocean University,Sanya 572022;School of Science,Hainan Tropical Ocean University,Sanya 572022;School of Business,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275)

机构地区：[1]海南热带海洋学院信息工程学院,三亚572022 [2]海南热带海洋学院理学院,三亚572022 [3]中山大学管理学院,广州510275

出　　处：《管理评论》2025年第3期250-260,共11页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72061011);海南省自然科学基金项目(721RC749;624MS070)。

摘　　要：在供应商生产服务水平及其零部件质量带有波动性的环境下,考虑多源跨国采购-组装的最优决策问题。本文利用随机过程理论来刻画生产服务水平与零部件质量的涟漪效应,构建带有多重随机因素的多周期跨国采购-组装决策模型,并给出随机系统的运作态势与可靠性评估机制。结果表明:当系统的多重质量波动的耦合作用使得生产状态占优时,其规划周期内的期望订购量与利润具有上升的趋势;当系统的生产服务水平波动过程为不可约遍历马尔可夫链时,企业的最优期望利润具有良好的鲁棒性,否则反之;通过首达目标评估机制的指标体系,可揭示供应商生产服务过程的风险传导机理,进而依此构建供应能力与质量控制的风险防范化解机制,从而达到安全运营与提质增效的预期。This paper aims to find out how to make the best decision regarding multi-source transnational procurement-assembly under the situation that the production service level and component quality are stochastic.First,stochastic process theory is used to describe the ripple effects of production service level and component quality.Then a multi-cycle transnational purchasing-assembly decision model with multiple stochastic factors is constructed,and the operation situation and reliability assessment mechanism of stochastic system is presented.The findings are as follows.When the coupling effect of multiple quality fluctuations makes the production state dominant,the expected order quantity and profit have an upward trend.When the production service level process is an irreducible ergodic Markov chain,the optimal expected profit has a good robustness,otherwise vice versa.The reliability of the supplier’s production system can be revealed by the first-reach target assessment mechanism.In order to avoid risks and achieve the goal of good operation,the corresponding supply contract or quality investment contract can be designed according to the mechanism.

关 键 词：跨国采购 装配系统 质量涟漪效应 评估机制 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]