基于数据驱动贝叶斯网络模型的起重作业关键致因要素分析  

Analysis on key causative factors of lifting operation based on data-driven Bayesian network model

作　　者：国汉君 康荣学[2] 王勇 曹海滨 崔华莹 赵金龙[3] GUO Hanjun;KANG Rongxue;WANG Yong;CAO Haibin;CUI Huaying;ZHAO Jinlong(China Energy Investment Corporation Limited,Beijing 100011,China;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China;School of Emergency Management&Safety Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]国家能源集团,北京100011 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012 [3]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第4期86-93,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

摘　　要：为了提升起重作业现场精准化管理水平,基于双因(内外因)事故综合致因理论,结合起重作业全流程,从人员、设备、环境和管理4个方面构建起重作业致因要素指标体系(22个二级指标和57个三级指标),并利用179起起重作业事故案例对指标体系进行验证;采用Apriori算法明确151条指标间的强关联规则,并构建起重作业贝叶斯网络,采用参数学习的方法,开展先验、后验和敏感性分析等。研究结果表明:安全培训不到位与违章操作关联度最高(支持度62.01%,置信度53.15%);先验和后验分析中安全培训问题最为突出,占比为62%,其次为人员违章操作,占比为48%;在敏感性分析中,交叉作业、起重设备突发因素、防护装备及着装不正确、缺少安全操作规程、应急预案等文件和隐患排查不到位等因素的敏感度较高;基于以上分析结果,提出针对性的对策建议。研究结果可为起重作业现场精准化管理提供技术参考。To improve the precise management level of lifting operation site,based on the theory of accident comprehensive causation with double(internal and external)factors,an index system of the causative factors for lifting operation was established from four aspects:human,equipment,environment and management(involving 22 second-level indexes and 57 third-level indexes),combing with the whole lifting operation process.Then,the index system was validated by using 179 cases of lifting operation accident.Subsequently,the Apriori algorithm was used to determine the strong association rules among 151 indexes,and the Bayesian network of lifting operation was constructed to carry out the priori,posteriori and sensitivity analysis using the parameter learning method.The results show that the insufficient safety training has the highest correlation with the illegal operation(62.01%support value and 53.15%confidence value).The problem of insufficient safety training is the most prominent in the priori and posteriori analysis,which accounts for 62%of the total,followed by the illegal operation accounting for 48%.In the sensitivity analysis,the sensitivity of the factors such as cross operations,sudden factors of lifting equipment,incorrect protective equipment and clothing,lacking of safety operation procedures and inadequate hazard identification are higher.Based on the above analysis,the targeted countermeasures are proposed.The research results can provide technical reference for the precise management of lifting operation sites.

关 键 词：起重作业 APRIORI算法 贝叶斯网络 关键要素分析 对策建议 

分 类 号：X943[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X928