2008—2020年江苏省张家港市结肠癌发病趋势及发病年龄变化特征分析  

Characteristics of colon cancer incidence trend and change in onset age in Zhangjiagang city of Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2020

作　　者：秦敏晔 王晓飞[2] 邱晶[1] 王临池[3] 崔俊鹏 顾增惠[2] QIN Minye;WANG Xiaofei;QIU Jing;WANG Linchi;CUI Junpeng;GU Zenghui(Department of Chronic Disease Control and Prevention,Zhangjiagang Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Suzhou,Jiangsu Province 215600,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]张家港市疾病预防控制中心慢病科,江苏省苏州215600 [2]张家港市疾病预防控制中心中心部,江苏省苏州215600 [3]苏州市疾病预防控制中心慢病科,江苏省苏州215000

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2025年第2期98-103,共6页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：姑苏卫生人才培养项目(GSWS2021054);苏州市科技局项目(SKYD2023161)。

摘　　要：目的了解江苏省张家港市居民结直肠癌的发病趋势及年龄变化特征,为进一步加强张家港结直肠癌防治工作提供数据支撑。方法收集张家港市肿瘤登记病例数据库2008—2020年结直肠癌的发病登记资料,结合户籍人口资料,计算发病率、中国人口标化发病率、0~74岁累积发病率、平均发病年龄、标化平均发病年龄、65岁及以上人群发病占比,其中标化人口使用2000年全国人口普查数据,使用Joinpoint 4.9.1软件进行变化趋势分析,计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。构建出生队列模型,计算1930—2020年出生的男性和女性结直肠癌发病率,并分析其发病趋势。结果2008—2020年张家港市结直肠癌发病率为43.19/10万,中标率为21.16/10万,0~74岁累积发病率为2.48%,均呈上升趋势(AAPC值分别为5.94%、2.84%和2.56%,P<0.01)。按性别分析,男性结直肠癌发病率是女性的1.50倍,男性发病率的上升幅度高于女性(男性和女性的AAPC分别为6.46%和5.24%,P<0.01)。出生队列分析结果显示,0~44岁组发病率变化趋势无统计学意义(AAPC=-2.23%,P=0.306),45岁及以上年龄组人群发病率随着出生年份的增加呈现较快上升趋势;其中45~54岁组增幅最快(AAPC=4.96%,P<0.01)。2008—2020年张家港市结直肠癌的平均发病年龄随着年份的增加而上升,从2008年的64.41岁增加到2020年的68.25岁(β=0.259,P<0.01),65岁及以上人群发病占比从2008年的53.63%上升到2020年的65.94%(AAPC=1.58%,P<0.01),但调整人口结构后,变化趋势均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论2008—2020年张家港市结直肠癌发病率呈现上升趋势,应制定相关防治措施,降低张家港市结直肠癌疾病负担。Objective To understand the incidence trend and age change characteristics of colorectal cancer among residents in Zhangjiagang City,Jiangsu Province,and provide data support for further strengthening the prevention and treatment of colorectal cancer in Zhangjiagang City.Methods The incidence registration data of colorectal cancer in Zhangjiagang City's tumor registry case database from 2008 to 2020 were collected,and combined with the household population data,the incidence rate,the standardized incidence rate of the Chinese population,the cumulative incidence rate of the 0-74 years old,the average age of incidence,the standardized average age of incidence,and the percentage of incidence in the age of 65 years old and above were calculated.The population was calculated using data from the 2000 national census,and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of colorectal cancer incidence rate was calculated using Joinpoint 4.9.1 software.Birth cohort model were constructed and colorectal cancer incidence rates were calculated and trends were analyzed for men and women born between 1930 and 2020.Results From 2008 to 2020,the incidence rate of colorectal cancer in Zhangjiagang City was 43.19/105.The standardized incidence rate was 21.16/105 and the cumulative incidence rate from 0 to 74 years old of age was 2.48%,all of which were on the rise(AAPC values were 5.94%,2.84%and 2.56%,respectively,P<0.01).Analyzed by gender,the incidence of colorectal cancer in men was 0.50 times higher than that in women,and the increase in incidence was higher in men than that in women(AAPC values were 6.46%and 5.24%,respectively,P<0.01).The results of the birth cohort analysis indicated that the changing trend of the incidence rate in the 0 to 44 age group was not statistically significant(AAPC=-2.23%,P=0.306).In the age group of 45 and above,the incidence rate showed a relatively rapid upward trend as the birth year increased.Among them,the 45 to 54 age group had the fastest growth rate(AAPC=4.96%,P<0.01).The average age of onset of c

关 键 词：结直肠癌 发病率 发病年龄 变化趋势 

分 类 号：R735.3[医药卫生—肿瘤]