系统论视角下尼泊尔政治稳定国内影响因素探析  

An Analysis on Domestic Influencing Factors of Political Stability in Nepal from the Perspective of Systems Theory

作　　者：孙瑜泽 何朝荣 SUN Yu-ze;HE Chao-rong

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院 [2]国防科技大学国别和区域研究中心南亚分中心

出　　处：《南亚东南亚研究》2025年第1期66-106,156,157,共43页South and Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：2019年国家社科基金项目“中尼印经济走廊的战略价值及建设路径研究”(项目批准号:19BGJ062);2018年国家社科基金项目“改革开放以来中国巴基斯坦关系史研究”(项目批准号:18VJX097)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：尼泊尔自1990年恢复代议制民主体制以来,国内政局持续动荡,已历经30次政府更迭。从戴维·伊斯顿的政治系统论视角出发,以“系统输入—系统调节—系统输出”为研究路径,构建起尼泊尔政治稳定影响因素的分析框架。尼泊尔的政治稳定是一个复杂的系统性难题,根源在于政治系统与社会环境间的互动失衡。在系统输入端,尼泊尔面临要求输入超载,主流议会政党难以有效应对武装革命、身份运动和族群政治等所代表的多元利益诉求。民众亦对政府与民主体制的支持输入下降,引发民粹主义与保皇势力等反建制力量抬头。在系统调节端,山区高种姓精英群体对边缘群体的排斥加剧了政治诉求的输入难度,主要政党为了党派利益的恶性竞争造成议会运行受阻、制宪困境和政治决策陷入僵局,进而导致政府频繁更迭。在系统输出端,尼泊尔在推进法治建设和行政服务方面效率不高,政治腐败进一步削弱国家治理能力。这些问题在政治系统各阶段相互作用,共同构成尼泊尔政治不稳定的底层逻辑。尼泊尔实现政治稳定仍将是一个长期而复杂的过程,短期内的政局不稳或将仍是常态。Since the restoration of representative democracy in 1990,Nepal has experienced persistent political instability,marked by 30 changes of government.From David Easton’s political system theory,an analytical framework for the factors influencing Nepal’s political stability can be constructed with a research path of“system input-system regulation-system output”.Nepal’s political stability is a complex systemic problem,rooted in the unbalanced interaction between the political system and the social environment.At the input end of the system,Nepal faces an overload of demands,and it is difficult for mainstream parliamentary parties to effectively respond to the diverse interest demands represented by armed revolution,identity movements,and ethnic politics.Public support for the government and democratic institutions has also declined,leading to the rise of antiestablishment forces such as populists and royalists.At the regulation end of the system,the exclusion of marginalized groups by the high-caste elite groups in the mountainous regions intensifies the difficulty of the input of political demands,and the vicious competition among major political parties for partisan interests leads to the obstruction of the parliamentary operations,the difficulty of constitution-making and the deadlock in political decision-making,which leads to frequent changes of the government.At the output end of the system,Nepal is not efficient in promoting the rule of law and administrative services,and political corruption further weakens the country’s governance capacity.These issues shape Nepal's political instability,making stability a long,complex process with short-term uncertainty.

关 键 词：尼泊尔 政治稳定 系统论 政党政治 身份政治 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]