2024年秋季中国气候异常及成因分析  

Features and Possible Causes of the Climatic Anomaly in China in Autumn 2024

作　　者：李多[1] 章大全 孙冷[1] LI Duo;ZHANG Daquan;SUN Leng(CMA Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《气象》2025年第4期496-507,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3013100);国家自然科学基金项目(42175047、41975091);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J004);上海市科技计划项目(23DZ1204704);中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(2423020054);贵州新气象科技有限责任公司“揭榜挂帅”项目(2024-N69)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集和中国2400个站的气候观测数据,对2024年秋季我国气候异常特征及其成因进行分析。2024年秋季中国平均气温为1961年以来历史同期最高;平均降水量较常年同期略偏多,空间分布总体呈现“北多南少”型特征。西北太平洋生成和登陆我国的台风个数均较常年偏多,台风移动路径以西北行为主。秋季东亚中高纬位势高度距平场总体呈现“西低东高”的环流特征,西太平洋副热带高压总体较常年偏强,西伸脊点偏西,脊线位置9月异常偏北、10月略偏北、11月接近常年,导致我国气温显著偏高。西太平洋海面温度偏高,南海和菲律宾以东区域上空为低层正涡度区且垂直风切变偏小,菲律宾北部至日本海以南区域低层假相当位温显著偏高,上述热力及动力条件均有利于秋季台风生成偏多;8月底至9月MJO东传,海洋性大陆至西太平洋地区对流活动加强有利于副热带高压脊线位置异常偏北,从而牵引台风移动路径偏北。此外,秋季赤道中东太平洋海温偏低,南海夏季风撤退的异常偏晚也有利于2024年秋季台风生成个数偏多、路径偏北。Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and climate observation from 2400 stations of China,the characteristics of climatic anomaly over China in autumn 2024 and the possible causes are analyzed.The results denote that,in autumn 2024,the mean temperature in China peaked the record in the same period since 1961 and the average precipitation was slightly more than the climatic mean,with the spatial distribution generally characterized by“more in the north and less in the south”.In autumn,the typhoons generated in the Northwest Pacific and the landing typhoons in China were more than normal,and their paths were mainly in the northwest direction.The circulation in the mid-high latitudes in East Asia showed the feature of“low in the west and high in the east”.The West Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)was stronger and more westward than usual overall,and its ridge line swung frequently in the meridional direction,that is,the ridge line was abnormally further north than usual in September,slightly north than usual in October and close to normal position in November,which led to the abnormal warming in China.The SST in the West Pacific was higher than normal.The South China Sea and its eastern area were the positive vorticity area with small vertical wind shear,and the significantly higher pseudo-equivalent temperature in the lower level from the northern Philippines to the south of the Sea of Japan,were conducive to the formation of abnormally more typhoons in autumn.The strengthening of convection activity from the maritime mainland to the West Pacific brought by MJO eastward spread from the end of August to September was beneficial to the abnormal northward position of the subtropical high,which made the typhoon track by north in autumn.In addition,the abnormally lower SST in the equatorial Middle East Pacific and the unusually late retreat of the summer monsoon in the South China Sea all contributed to the frequent occurrence and northward track of typhoons in autumn 2024.

关 键 词：秋季气候异常 台风 中高纬度大气环流 西北太平洋副热带高压 MJO 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]