盐城市县域碳汇时空特征及其影响因素  

Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Sinks at the County Level in the Yancheng City

作　　者：李建豹 张彩莉 陈红梅 赵小风[3] 李颖 王培震 LI Jian-bao;ZHANG Cai-li;CHEN Hong-mei;ZHAO Xiao-feng;LI Ying;WANG Pei-zhen(School of Public Administration,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210023,China;Government Management Research Centre,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Public Administration,Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学公共管理学院,南京210023 [2]南京财经大学政府管理研究中心,南京210023 [3]河海大学公共管理学院,南京211100 [4]浙江财经大学公共管理学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第4期1985-1994,共10页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901245,42201317,42371293);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(23YJCZH102);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX23_1879)。

摘　　要：以盐城市10个县域为研究对象,基于核密度、趋势分析和标准差椭圆,分析1990~2020年盐城市县域碳汇时空特征,并构建多尺度地理加权回归模型,分析碳汇的主要影响因素.结果表明:①盐城市碳汇量总体呈增加趋势.碳汇量的绝对差异波动上升,相对差异与绝对差异的变化趋势基本一致.各县域碳汇存在不均衡现象,且呈增强趋势.②1990~2020年碳汇高值区主要分布在盐城沿海地区,且碳汇空间格局较为稳定.总体呈东高西低,南高北低的空间分布特征.碳汇标准差椭圆的中心基本以10 a为周期,移动较大距离.③多尺度地理加权回归模型估计结果表明:第二产业比例、人均地区生产总值、人口密度和土地利用强度对碳汇影响程度不同.第二产业比例对碳汇的负向作用最强,降低第二产业比例是提高碳汇的重要途径.The spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon sinks in the Yancheng City from 1990 to 2020 were investigated using kernel density,trend analysis,and standard deviation ellipse,and a multi-scale geographically weighted regression was constructed to analyze the main factors influencing carbon sinks.The results showed that:①The carbon sinks generally exhibited an increasing trend.The absolute difference in carbon sinks showed an overall fluctuating upward trend,consistent with the relative difference.An imbalance in carbon sinks was observed among different counties,and it showed an increasing trend.②From 1990 to 2020,the high value areas of carbon sinks were mainly distributed in the coastal areas of Yancheng,and the spatial pattern of carbon sinks was stable.The spatial distribution characteristic was low in the west and north and high in the east and south.The center of the standard deviation ellipse of the carbon sinks followed a 10-year cycle and shifted considerably over this period.③The results of the multi-scale geographically weighted regression model showed that the proportion of secondary industry,per capita gross domestic product,population density,and land use intensity had different effects on carbon sinks.The secondary industry had the strongest negative effect on carbon sinks,making it crucial to reduce its proportion to enhance carbon sinks.

关 键 词：县域 碳汇 时空特征 影响因素 多尺度地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]