中国省域交通运输碳排放脱钩状态及其驱动因素  

Decoupling Status and Driving Factors of Provincial Transport Carbon Emissions in China

作　　者：葛青秀 杨萍果[1] 蒲英霞[2] GE Qing-xiu;YANG Ping-guo;PU Ying-xia(School of Life Science,Shanxi Normal University,Taiyuan 030031,China;School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学生命科学学院,太原030031 [2]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210023

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第4期2009-2019,共11页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作交流项目(42261144739);国家自然科学基金项目(42371435);山西师范大学研究生课程思政示范课程项目(2023YJSKCSZSFK-07)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”战略背景下,交通运输业作为中国碳减排的重点行业,积极寻求行业低碳转型新发展路径是低碳研究的热点之一.针对交通运输碳排放问题,基于Tapio脱钩和对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型,从整体、时段和区域分解等多角度,分析2012~2021年中国省域交通运输业碳排放特征、脱钩状态及其驱动因素.结果表明:①中国交通能源碳排放总量整体上逐年增长,但增长率呈下降趋势;各省交通碳排放量在空间上呈现东南高,西北低的分布格局;②10 a间40.0%的省份实现了交通碳排放与经济发展的绝对脱钩,53.3%的省份实现了相对脱钩;③经济增长、人口规模和碳排放系数是促进交通运输业碳排放增加的因素,而交通能源强度和行业规模则是抑制交通运输业碳排放增加的因素.因此,在中国实现“双碳”目标的进程中,各省应因地制宜制定差异化地区碳减排政策,积极承担减排责任,加快推动脱钩进程的力度,推进交通运输业绿色低碳转型.In the context of the“dual carbon”strategy,the transportation industry actively seeks a new development path of low-carbon transformation,which is one of the hot spots in China's carbon emission reduction.Based on the Tapio decoupling and logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)models,this study analyzed the carbon emission characteristics,decoupling status,and driving factors of China's provincial transportation industry from multiple perspectives,such as overall,time period,and regional decomposition from 2012 to 2021.The results showed that China's total carbon emissions from transport sector exhibited an increasing trend with passing years overall,but growth rate showed decreasing trend.The spatial distribution pattern of carbon emissions from transportation industry was higher in the southeast and lower in northwest.During the past decade,40.0%of the provinces achieved absolute decoupling between carbon emissions from transportation industry and economic development,and 53.3%of the provinces achieved relative decoupling.From the perspective of the transportation industry,economic growth,population size,and carbon emission coefficient promoted an increase in carbon emissions,while transportation energy intensity and industry scale inhibited the increase in carbon emissions.Therefore,during the process of realizing the“dual carbon”goal in China,each province should formulate differentiated reduction policies in regional carbon emissions according to local conditions,actively assume emission reduction responsibilities,increase efforts to promote the decoupling process,and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the transportation industry.

关 键 词：交通运输业 碳排放 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI分析 时空特征 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]