基于全生命周期视角的中国建筑业碳排放核算与碳达峰预测  

Carbon Emission Accounting and Peak Carbon Prediction of China's Construction Industry from a Whole Life Cycle Perspective

作　　者：周向红 胡鹏程 成鹏飞 ZHOU Xiang-hong;HU Peng-cheng;CHENG Peng-fei(School of Business,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China;Hunan Engineering Research Center for Intelligent Decision Making and Big Data on Industrial Development,Xiangtan 411201,China;Research Center for High Quality Development of Regional Economy,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学商学院,湘潭411201 [2]产业发展大数据与智能决策湖南省工程研究中心,湘潭411201 [3]湖南科技大学区域经济高质量发展研究中心,湘潭411201

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第4期2020-2034,共15页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23BGL038)。

摘　　要：碳排放核算与碳达峰预测是当前我国建筑业碳减排的前提,也是履行碳减排责任的重要依据.为准确刻画建筑业碳排放演变趋势,首先采用基于全生命周期视角分阶段核算中国建筑业碳排放.然后利用Pearson检验筛选出建筑业碳排放的影响因素,建立STIRPAT扩展模型,借助LMDI法对扩展模型中因素进行分解,计算各碳排放影响因素的贡献率.最后构建基于ASO-BP的多变量非线性回归预测模型,结合贡献率探讨多情景下建筑业碳排放演变情况,并从建材生产、建筑运行和建筑施工等方面分别提出政策建议.结果表明:①小样本环境下原子搜索算法在预测精度和时间等方面优于其他传统智能算法.②多情景下中国建筑业均在2030年实现了碳达峰,但人口增长情景下建筑业于2031年才达到高点,滞后于碳达峰目标.③人口变动会导致3个阶段的碳达峰时间后移,尤其是对运行阶段的碳达峰有显著影响.Carbon emission accounting and carbon peak prediction are the prerequisites for carbon reduction in the current construction industry in China,constituting an important basis for fulfilling the responsibility of carbon reduction.To accurately depict the evolutionary trend of carbon emissions in the construction industry,the carbon emissions of the Chinese construction industry were calculated in stages,based on a full life cycle perspective.The Pearson test was used to select the factors influencing carbon emissions in the construction industry,and an extended STIRPAT model was established.The logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)method was used to analyze the factors in the extended model and calculate the contribution rate of each factor influencing carbon emission.Finally,a multivariate nonlinear regression prediction model based on ASO-BP was constructed to explore the evolution of carbon emissions in the construction industry under multiple scenarios,and policy suggestions were proposed for material production,building operation,and construction.The research results showed:①Under a small sample environment,the atom search algorithm was superior to other traditional intelligent algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy and time.②Under multiple scenarios,the Chinese construction industry will achieve carbon peaking in 2030;however,under the current population growth scenario,the construction industry will not reach its peak until 2031,lagging behind in the carbon peaking target.③Population changes will lead to the postponement of carbon peaking in three stages,particularly having a considerable impact on the operational stage.

关 键 词：建筑业 碳达峰 全生命周期 碳排放 ASO-BP预测模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]