数字经济赋能地区低碳经济转型:基于中介效应、门槛效应与空间溢出效应  

Digital Economy Empowers Low Carbon Economy Transformation:Based on Intermediary,Threshold,and Spatial Spillover Effects

作　　者：徐军委 刘志华 吴福生 XU Jun-wei;LIU Zhi-hua;WU Fu-sheng(School of Labor Relations and Human Resources,China University of Labor Relations,Beijing 100048,China;College of Economics and Management,Institute of Disaster Prevention,Langfang 065201,China;Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Economic System Simulation,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]中国劳动关系学院劳动关系与人力资源学院,北京100048 [2]防灾科技学院经济管理学院,廊坊065201 [3]贵州财经大学贵州省经济系统仿真重点实验室,贵阳550025

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第4期2089-2102,共14页Environmental Science

基　　金：中国劳动关系学院校级一般项目(23XYJS002);河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(SQ2023001);贵州省教育厅自然科学基金项目(黔教KY字[2021]064)。

摘　　要：在数字经济迅猛发展与实现“双碳”目标的双重背景下,探究数字经济对地区低碳经济转型的影响具有重要意义.基于2010~2021年30个省市的平衡面板数据,运用面板固定效应模型、中介效应模型、门槛效应模型与空间计量模型实证检验了数字经济对地区低碳经济转型的直接效应、间接效应、非线性效应与空间溢出效应.结果表明:①数字经济能显著推动地区低碳经济转型,这一结论在经过多重稳健性检验后仍然有效;②机制检验表明,数字经济通过推动绿色技术创新与新型城镇化建设显著推动地区低碳经济转型;③门槛效应检验表明,当绿色技术创新水平过高或城镇化水平处于初级阶段时,数字经济对地区低碳经济转型的推动作用会被弱化;④通过构建空间杜宾模型发现,数字经济对地区低碳经济转型具有显著的空间溢出效应,但这种效应在“地理邻近省市”要强于“经济邻近省市”.In the dual context of rapid development in the digital economy and pursuit of dual carbon goals,exploring the impact of the digital economy on regional low-carbon economic transformation holds considerable importance.Based on the balanced panel data of 30 provinces from 2010 to 2021,this study empirically examined the direct,indirect,nonlinear,and spatial spillover effects of digital economy on regional low-carbon economic transformation using the panel fixed effect,intermediary effect,threshold effect,and spatial econometric models.The results showed that:①Digital economy could significantly promote the transition of low-carbon economy,which was valid after multiple robustness tests.②The mechanism test showed that the digital economy substantially promoted the transformation of the regional low-carbon economy by promoting green technology innovation and new urbanization.③The threshold effect test showed that when the level of green technology innovation was too high or the level of urbanization was in the primary stage,the role of digital economy in promoting regional low-carbon economic transformation would be weakened.④By constructing a spatial Dubin model,the digital economy showed a significant spatial spillover effect on the transformation of regional low-carbon economy,but the effect was stronger in the“geographically neighboring provinces and municipalities”than in the“economically neighboring provinces and municipalities”.

关 键 词：数字经济 低碳经济转型 中介效应 门槛效应 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]