基于最优参数地理探测器的京津冀植被覆盖演化多元驱动力解析  

Analysis of Multiple Drivers of Fractional Vegetation Cover Evolution in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei Based on the Optimal Parameters Geographical Detector

作　　者：时凯 闫丰 王宗超 田朋飞 梁阅兵 陈亚恒 SHI Kai;YAN Feng;WANG Zong-chao;TIAN Peng-fei;LIANG Yue-bing;CHEN Ya-heng(College of Land and Resources,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071001,China;School of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071001,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学国土资源学院,保定071001 [2]河北农业大学资源与环境科学学院,保定071001

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第4期2337-2351,共15页Environmental Science

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(HB23YJ008)。

摘　　要：厘清植被动态时空分异格局的驱动机制对生态环境保护与修复具有重要指导意义.利用2002~2020年长时间序列NDVI数据,选取代表地形、气候、岩土类型和人类活动等影响因素的25个具体变量,结合像元二分、趋势分析、偏相关分析和最优参数地理探测器等方法,对京津冀植被覆盖度(FVC)的时空分布格局及其多元驱动机制进行研究.结果表明:①京津冀近20年的FVC总体呈下降趋势,平均下降率约为0.0024 a^(−1),北部和南部地区的FVC相对较高,而西部和中部地区的FVC水平相对较低.约28.73%的地区有显著下降(P<0.01)趋势,主要分布在京津冀地区的南、东和中部.②自然因素中蒸散发量、累计降水、土壤类型、地形以及人类活动中的财政收入、人均GDP、夜间灯光强度和人口密度被确定为驱动FVC演变的主要因素(Q>0.15);同时这些因素对FVC具有交互增强作用,协同效应导致非线性增强效应或双线性增强效应,其中LST和ET的组合解释力最高(Q>0.83),太阳辐射和ET的组合次之(Q>0.81).③蒸散发量在572~772 mm、累计降水在461~514 mm、辐射在1980~2030 W·m^(−2)、LST在5.5~12℃、平均气温在−0.902~3.74℃、海拔在1560~2180 m之间、地貌类型为大起伏中山、土壤类型为淋溶土和植被类型为林地时FVC表现最优.研究结论有助于区域政府进行植被生态系统保护与修复的精准施策.A clear understanding of the driving mechanisms behind spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics is of great significance in guiding the protection and restoration of ecological environments.The spatial and temporal distribution pattern of fractional vegetation cover(FVC)and its multiple driving mechanisms in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei were investigated using long-term NDVI data from 2002 to 2020.A total of 25 specific variables were selected to represent the influencing factors of topography,climate,geotechnical type,and human activities.The selected variables were combined with the methods of metric dichotomies,trend analyses,biased correlation analyses,and optimal parameter geodetectors.The results indicated that:①The FVC in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei over the past 20 years exhibited a general downward trend,with an average decline rate of approximately 0.0024 per annum.The FVC levels in the northern and southern regions were relatively high,while those in the western and central regions were relatively low.Approximately 28.73%of the areas exhibited a significant decreasing trend(P<0.01),with the greatest decline observed in the southern,eastern,and central regions of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei.②The main factors driving the evolution of FVC(Q>0.15)were identified as natural factors,including evapotranspiration,cumulative precipitation,soil type,topography,and human activities,such as financial income,GDP per capita,nighttime light intensity,and population density.These factors were found to interact with each other.The enhancement effect on FVC was found to be nonlinear,with a bilinear enhancement effect observed when the combination of LST and ET was considered.This was followed by the combination of solar radiation and ET,which demonstrated the highest explanatory power(Q>0.81).The FVC was highest for the combination of LST and ET(Q>0.83)and second highest for the combination of solar radiation and ET(Q>0.81).③Evapotranspiration ranged from 572 to 772 mm,cumulative precipitation ranged from 461 to 514 mm,a

关 键 词：植被覆盖度(FVC) 最优参数地理探测器 时空分布 多元驱动 京津冀 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]