近20 a气候变化和人类活动对石羊河流域植被生态质量变化影响的定量甄别  

Quantitative Identification of Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Ecological Quality of Vegetation in the Shiyang River Basin over Past 20 Years

作　　者：康丽芳 赵锐锋[1,2] 陆海天 刘福寿 杨琳绮 任晓彤 KANG Li-fang;ZHAO Rui-feng;LU Hai-tian;LIU Fu-shou;YANG Lin-qi;REN Xiao-tong(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]甘肃省绿洲资源环境与可持续发展重点实验室,兰州730070

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第4期2439-2449,共11页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41261047,41761043,32160410);甘肃省科技计划项目(20YF3FA042);西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划团队项目(NMNULKQN-17-7)。

摘　　要：气候变化和一系列的人为活动致使植被发生显著变化,定量甄别石羊河流域气候变化和人类活动对植被生态质量年际变化的贡献量,对石羊河流域应对未来气候挑战以及实施生态保护措施具有重要价值.基于植被生态质量(EQI),结合多源遥感数据,采用Slope趋势分析、偏相关分析和残差分析等方法,分析石羊河流域植被生态质量时空格局变化及其与气候因素的偏相关关系,并探讨了气候变化和人类活动因子对EQI趋势变化的相对贡献.结果表明:①2002~2021年间石羊河流域EQI总体呈稳步上升的态势,在山区和绿洲EQI增长速度明显大于荒漠区;空间上由西南向东北呈先增后减的分布格局,且EQI增加较快的区域环绿洲边缘分布.②近20 a来石羊河流域气温和降水量均呈增加趋势,降水因子对植被变绿的正效应要大于温度对其的影响.③气候变化和人类活动对石羊河流域近20 a EQI增加分别贡献了33%和67%,人类活动对植被生态质量的正向影响不断加强.研究结果为石羊河流域植被生态保护和治理政策的制定提供重要参考.Climate change and a series of anthropogenic activities have caused significant changes in vegetation.Quantitative identification of the relative contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to the interannual changes in vegetation ecological quality in the Shiyang River Basin is of great value for coping with future climatic challenges and implementing ecological protection measures in the Shiyang River Basin.Based on vegetation ecological quality(EQI),combined with multi-source remote sensing data,this study utilized slope trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and residual analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation ecological quality change and the partial correlation relationship with climate factors in the Shiyang River Basin and explored the relative contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities to EQI trend change.The results showed that:①EQI in the Shiyang River Basin increased steadily from 2002 to 2021,and the growth rate of EQI in the mountain area and oasis was significantly higher than that in the desert area.From southwest to northeast,the distribution pattern increased first and then decreased,and the regions with a faster increase in EQI were distributed around the oasis edge.②Both temperature and precipitation in the Shiyang River Basin increased during the recent 20 years,and the positive effect of precipitation factor on vegetation greening was greater than that of temperature.③Climate change and anthropogenic activities contributed 33%and 67%,respectively,to the increase of EQI in the Shiyang River Basin in the past 20 years,and the positive impact of anthropogenic activities on vegetation ecological quality was continuously strengthened.The research results provide important reference for the formulation of vegetation ecological protection and management policies in the Shiyang River basin.

关 键 词：植被生态质量(EQI) 气候变化 人类活动 残差分析 石羊河流域 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]