信贷规模、信贷结构优化与房地产金融风险  

Credit Scale,Credit Structural Optimization and Real Estate Financial Risk

作　　者：宋凌峰[1,2] 何荣 SONG Lingfeng;HE Rong(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University;Research Center for Financial Engineering and Risk Management,Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430072 [2]武汉大学金融工程与风险管理研究中心,430072

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2025年第3期97-112,共16页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“经济持续下行引致系统性金融风险的机制与宏观审慎政策研究”(20BJY235)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以房地产业与银行业为研究对象,将信贷因素引入网络分析法以刻画银行和房地产企业间的风险传染过程,研究改变信贷规模和优化信贷结构对房地产金融风险的影响效果,并分别从总量和结构层面为制定房地产信贷政策提供参考。研究发现:相比于改变信贷规模,优化银行房企间信贷结构对房地产金融风险的改善效果更显著。在适当的信贷紧缩区间内,优化信贷结构和收缩信贷规模可以协同降低房地产金融风险,并满足银行微观审慎需求。本文建议,银行和房企应基于信贷规模、信贷结构和房地产金融风险的结构化特征分别调整贷款额度和分散借贷,监管机构应针对银行房企信贷网络中的不同节点实施差异化监管,并重点关注具有系统重要性和出现不匹配问题的节点,共同推动信贷资金结构优化、降低房地产金融风险、实现宏观审慎监管与银行微观审慎行为的平衡。Real estate credit constitutes a crucial factor influencing the economic and financial stability.Existing literature predominantly focuses on the impact of credit scale fluctuations on real estate financial risk.Most scholars examine the implementation effects of credit scale policies from a macro perspective,while neglecting the micro connections between credit policies and real estate financial risk.The structural characteristics of credit policies and the risk implications of credit structure have not been adequately addressed.This study investigates the real estate industry and banking sector by incorporating credit factors into the network analysis framework to characterize the risk contagion processes between banks and real estate enterprises.Based on the nonlinear DebtRank algorithm,we analyze how credit scale adjustments and credit structure optimization influence real estate financial risk,offering evidence-based insights for real estate credit policy-making from both aggregate and structural perspectives.Key findings are as follows:First,the impact of credit scale adjustments on real estate financial risk demonstrates a“positive U-shaped”characteristic,where excessive expansion or contraction of credit increases real estate financial risk.Moderate credit relaxation helps to mitigate real estate financial risk,while it conflicts with commercial banks'safety principle.Second,compared to credit scale adjustments,optimizing the credit structure between banks and real estate enterprises has a more significant effect on reducing real estate financial risk.Third,within an appropriate credit tightening range,coordinated implementation of credit structure optimization and credit scale contraction synergistically reduces real estate financial risk while maintaining compatibility with banks'micro-prudential behaviors.Accordingly,it is recommended that banks strategically adjust loan quotas and diversify credit allocations based on the structural characteristics of credit scale,credit structure,and real estate

关 键 词：房地产金融风险 信贷规模 信贷结构优化 差异化监管 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]