基于人口和土地利用变化的伊犁河流域洪水灾害风险评估  

Flood hazard risk assessment in the Ili River basin based on population and land⁃use changes

作　　者：张敏杰 付湘[1] 王纲胜[1] ZHANG Minjie;FU Xiang;WANG Gangsheng(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(工学版)》2025年第4期531-540,共10页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0601)。

摘　　要：为探究洪水灾害风险的时空分布特征,基于伊犁河流域的自然特征和社会特点,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、承灾体脆弱性这3个方面构建洪水灾害风险评估指标体系。基于3种降雨情景及2种人口和土地利用类型情景,评估对应情景下的洪水灾害风险,深入探讨人口和土地利用类型变化下区域洪灾风险的时空演变趋势。研究分别对区域内2022年和2050年的洪水灾害风险进行评估,结果表明:相比于2022年,2050年的人口和耕地面积显著增长,不断向伊犁河流域西北部扩大;在100 a一遇的降雨情景下,2022年洪灾高风险地区占比为1.80%;与2022年相比,2050年在降雨分别为多年平均、20 a一遇、100 a一遇的情景下,高风险地区占比分别增加了4.92%、5.05%和5.71%;随着人口和耕地面积的增加,3种降雨情景下伊宁县、巩留县及新源县等地区的洪灾高风险区均显著增加。研究揭示了人口和土地利用变化对洪灾风险评估的影响,为制定有效的洪水防控策略提供了科学依据。To investigate the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of flood disaster risk,the flood hazard risk assessment index system is constructed based on the natural and social characteristics of the Ili River basin within China.The flood hazard risk assessment index system incorporates three aspects:the hazard of disaster-causing factors,the exposure and the vulnerability of disaster recipients.Based on three rainfall scenarios and two population and land-use scenarios,the flood disaster risk under corresponding scenarios is assessed,and the spatio-temporal evolution trends of regional flood hazard risk under population and land-use changes are deeply discussed.The study evaluates the flood hazard risk of the region in 2022 and 2050 respectively,and the results show that compared with 2022,the population and arable land area in 2050 will increase significantly,and continue to expand to the northwest of the Ili River basin within China.In the once-in-100-year recurrence rainfall scenario,the proportion of high-risk flood areas in 2022 is 1.80%.Compared with 2022,the proportions of high-risk areas in 2050 will increase by 4.92%,5.05%,and 5.71%under the multi-year average,20-year and 100-year recurrence scenarios,respectively.With the increase of population and cultivated land area,the flood risk areas in Yining County,Gongliu County,and Xinyuan County will increase significantly under the three rainfall scenarios.This study reveals the impact of population and land-use changes on the flood hazard risk,and provides scientific basis for formulating effective flood prevention and control strategies.

关 键 词：暴雨洪水 洪灾风险 风险评估 伊犁河流域 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]