中国基础设施质量改善的宏观经济影响——基于动态一般均衡模型的分析  

Macroeconomic impact of improving the quality of infrastructure in China:Analysis based on a dynamic general equilibrium model

作　　者：杨佩霏 王自奔 唐嘉懿 乔嘉艺 陈浩[1] YANG Peifei;WANG Ziben;TANG Jiayi;QIAO Jiayi;CHEN Hao(School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2025年第3期103-112,共10页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274198)。

摘　　要：基础设施质量的改善不仅关乎国家经济的长远健康发展,更直接关系到人民的生活品质和社会的稳定繁荣。为深入探究我国各类基础设施质量改善的宏观经济影响,构建了一个契合中国国情的多部门动态一般均衡模型,并通过反事实模拟定量分析了2002—2017年间基础设施质量改善对经济增长的贡献。研究发现,2002—2017年间,基础设施质量的改善对经济增长有显著的正向贡献,使中国的年均产出增长率增加0.24%。从一般均衡的角度证明了基础设施质量改善对经济发展的重要性,为全球基础设施建设与经济发展战略提供了研究价值。The improvement of infrastructure quality is not only related to the long-term healthy development of the national economy,but also directly affects the quality of life of the people and the stability and prosperity of society.To further explore the macroeconomic impact of infrastructure quality improvement in China,this paper constructs a dynamic multisector general equilibrium model that fits the Chinese context.Through parameter calibration,the model is able to match the key characteristics of the Chinese economy and the economic transformation path.Counterfactual experiments are conducted to quantitatively analyze the contribution of infrastructure quality improvement to economic growth from 2002 to 2017.The results show that between 2002 and 2017,the improvement of infrastructure quality made a significant positive contribution to economic growth,increasing China’s average annual output growth rate by 0.24%.This study demonstrates the importance of improving infrastructure quality for economic development from a general equilibrium perspective,providing research value for global infrastructure construction and economic development strategies.

关 键 词：基础设施质量 经济增长 动态一般均衡模型 宏观经济 产出增长率 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]