换道事故严重程度影响因素异质性和可转移性分析  

Analysis of heterogeneity and transferability of factors influencing severity of lane change accidents

作　　者：潘义勇[1] 尤逸文 吴静婷 PAN Yi-yong;YOU Yi-wen;WU Jing-ting(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,南京210037

出　　处：《吉林大学学报(工学版)》2025年第2期520-528,共9页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51508280)。

摘　　要：为探究事故严重程度影响因素的异质性及可转移性,构建基于均值和方差异质性的随机参数Logit模型对换道事故伤害严重程度进行影响因素分析。将事故严重程度分为3类并从驾驶员特性、车辆特性、道路特性及道路环境特性四个方面选取27个潜在影响因素,通过随机参数的均值和方差变化捕捉事故严重程度影响因素异质性,利用对数似然比检验事故严重程度影响因素可转移性,通过边际效应定量分析各因素对事故严重程度的影响。结果显示,换道和非换道两组事故严重程度影响因素存在显著异质性;在确定各影响因素间不存在相关性的条件下,日光照射被识别为换道事故中的随机因素,其均值与驾驶员超速变速、州际公路显著相关,方差与车辆禁用功能全部损坏显著相关,信号控制被识别为非换道事故中的随机因素,其均值与驾驶员年龄为中年相关,方差与驾驶员超速变速相关;换道事故和非换道事故严重程度影响因素不存在可转移性,存在显著差异。To investigate the heterogeneity and transferability of factors influencing accident severity,arandom parametric Logit model based on mean and variance heterogeneity is constructed to analyze thefactors influencing the severity of injury in lane-changing accidents.Divide the severity of accidents intothree categories and select 27 potential influencing factors from four aspects:driver characteristics,vehiclecharacteristics,road characteristics,and road environmental characteristics.Capturing heterogeneity infactors affecting accident severity through mean and variance changes in stochastic parameters,testing thetransferability of factors influencing accident severity using log-likelihood ratios,quantifying the impact offactors on accident severity through marginal effects.The results show that there is significant heterogeneityin the factors influencing the severity of accidents in the two groups of lane change and non-lane change.Under the condition that there is no correlation between the various influencing factors,sunlight exposure isa random factor in lane changing accidents,its mean is significantly correlated with the driver's speedchange and interstate highways,and its variance is significantly correlated with the complete failure ofvehicle disabling functions.Signal control is a random factor in non lane changing accidents,and its mean iscorrelated with the driver's age as middle-aged,and its variance is correlated with the driver's speedchange.There is no transferability and significant difference in the factors influencing the severity of lanechange and non-lane change accidents.

关 键 词：交通运输安全工程 事故严重程度 换道 均值和方差异质性的随机参数Logit模型 对数似然比检验 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]