非遍历地震动模型研究进展  

Advances in non-ergodic ground motion models

作　　者：张树强[1,2] 胡进军 刘名吉[1,2] ZHANG Shuqiang;HU Jinjun;LIU Mingji(Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation,Ministry of Emergency Management,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]地震灾害防治应急管理部重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2025年第2期1-11,共11页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52478568,52078470)。

摘　　要：基于遍历假设的地震动模型在特定场地或震源的应用中存在局限性,这可能导致地震危险性分析结果出现偏差。为解决此问题,非遍历假设被引入地震动模型研究。综述了遍历、部分遍历,以及非遍历地震动模型的基本构成和特征,介绍了非遍历地震动模型的发展历程、现状,以及建模方法,重点介绍了变异系数非遍历地震动模型的计算方法。相较于遍历模型,非遍历地震动模型展现出显著优势,包括不确定性明显降低和地震危险评估准确性提升。因此,非遍历地震动模型研究需更加受到关注,模型中震源项、场地项和路径项等非遍历项需结合地震相关的物理机制进一步研究,最后,对非遍历地震动模型研究进行了展望。Ground motion models based on ergodic assumptions exhibit limitations in site-or source-specific applications,potentially leading to deviations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results.To address this issue,non-ergodic assumptions have been gradually introduced into ground motion model research.This paper provides an overview of the basic components and characteristics of ergodic,partially ergodic,and non-ergodic ground motion models.It systematically reviews the development history,current status,and modeling methods of non-ergodic ground motion models,with a focus on the calculation method for non-ergodic ground motion models based on the coefficient of variation.Compared to ergodic models,non-ergodic ground motion models demonstrate significant advantages,including substantially reduced uncertainty and improved accuracy in earthquake hazard assessment.Therefore,further attention is urgently needed for non-ergodic ground motion model research,particularly in analyzing non-ergodic terms such as source,site,and path terms in conjunction with earthquake-related physical mechanisms.Finally,prospects for future research directions in non-ergodic ground motion models are discussed.

关 键 词：遍历地震动模型 非遍历地震动模型 非遍历假设 高斯过程 地震危险性分析 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]