基于2021年全球疾病负担研究数据的中国炎症性肠病流行趋势和负担分析  

Epidemiological trends and burden of inflammatory bowel disease in China based on the global burden of disease study 2021

作　　者：王静怡 赵文卓 王宏刚[1] 张敏娜 吴尚农[1] 杨晓钟[1] Wang Jingyi;Zhao Wenzhuo;Wang Honggang;Zhang Minna;Wu Shangnong;Yang Xiaozhong(Department of Gastroenterology,the Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University,Huai'an 223301,China)

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学附属淮安第一医院消化内科,淮安223301

出　　处：《中华炎性肠病杂志(中英文)》2025年第2期125-135,共11页Chinese Journal of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

摘　　要：目的基于2021年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2021)数据,分析中国炎症性肠病(IBD)1990—2021年的流行病学趋势,评估并预测疾病负担。方法利用GBD 2021数据库,收集1990—2021年中国IBD的发病率、患病率、病死率及伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率等数据,使用年度百分比变化(EAPC)和贝叶斯-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法进行分析,并预测中国IBD未来25年的疾病负担。结果中国IBD的标化发病率由1990年的0.74/10万上升至2021年的1.40/10万,2021年的标化发病率较1990年增长约89.19%;标化患病率由1990年的5.59/10万上升至2021年的9.16/10万,2021年的标化患病率较1990年增长约63.86%;标化病死率由1990年的0.75/10万下降至2021年的0.33/10万,2021年的标化病死率较1990年下降约56.00%;DALY数由1990年的162186年下降至2021年的136932年,2021年的DALY数较1990年下降约15.57%;标化DALY率由1990年的18.38/10万下降至2021年的7.68/10万,2021年的标化DALY率较1990年下降约58.22%。不同年龄组的分析显示,从1990年到2021年,35~39岁年龄段标化发病率增长最显著,EAPC为3.23%;50~54岁年龄段标化患病率增长最显著,EAPC为2.85%。性别分析显示,1990年至2021年间,女性的标化患病率均高于男性,但男性的标化病死率均高于女性;2004年至2021年,男性和女性的标化DALY率均呈现逐年下降趋势,但男性的标化DALY率均高于女性。预测到2046年,男性新发病例数将略高于女性,而病死和DALY预计则显示男性和女性均将维持在低水平。结论中国IBD疾病负担在过去30年显著增加,尤其在发病率和患病率上。尽管病死率总体下降,但随着人口老龄化,老年人群中IBD负担可能加剧。因此,有效的预防措施、早期的筛查和积极的治疗至关重要,特别是在老年人群中。Objective Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021),this study aims to analyze the epidemiological trends of inflammatory bowel diseases(IBD)in China from 1990 to 2021 and to assess the projected disease burden.Methods Data on incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)for IBD in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 database.Annual percent change(EAPC)and Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)analyses were employed to evaluate these trends.Additionally,predictions for the disease burden over the next 25 years were made.Results The age-standardized incidence rate of IBD in China rose from 0.74 per 100000 in 1990 to 1.40 per 100000 in 2021,an 89.19%increase.The age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 5.59 per 100000 in 1990 to 9.16 per 100000 in 2021,marking a 63.86%rise.Conversely,the age-standardized case fatality rate decreased from 0.75 per 100000 in 1990 to 0.33 per 100000 in 2021,a reduction of 56.00%.The total DALYs decreased from 162186 in 1990 to 136932 in 2021,a decline of 15.57%,while the age-standardized DALY rate fell from 18.38 per 100000 in 1990 to 7.68 per 100000 in 2021,a decrease of 58.22%.Analysis by age group revealed that the age-standardized incidence rate for the 35-39 years cohort increased most significantly,with an EAPC of 3.23%.The age-standardized prevalence rate for the 50-54 years cohort increased most significantly,with an EAPC of 2.85%.Gender analysis indicated that from 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized prevalence rate was higher among females than males,but the age-standardized case fatality rate rate was higher among males.From 2004 to 2021,the age-standardized DALY rate declined for both sexes,though it remained higher in males.By 2046,the number of new cases is projected to be slightly higher in males,while case fatality rate and DALYs are expected to remain low for both genders.Conclusions Over the past three decades,the disease burden of IBD in China has increased significantly,particularly in terms o

关 键 词：炎症性肠病 疾病负担 贝叶斯-时期-队列分析 老龄化 

分 类 号：R574[医药卫生—消化系统]