2013—2023年北京市海淀区小于胎龄儿发生趋势及预测分析  

Trends and forecasting of small gestational age infants in Haidian District of Beijing from 2013 to 2023

作　　者：李佳鑫 赵银珠[3] 殷延敏[3] 邹晓璇[3] LI Jiaxin;ZHAO Yinzhu;YIN Yanmin;ZOU Xiaoxuan(National Research Institute for Family Planning,Beijing 100081,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]国家卫生健康委科学技术研究所,北京100081 [2]北京协和医学院 [3]北京市海淀区妇幼保健院

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2025年第3期297-301,共5页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC2700705)。

摘　　要：目的分析2013—2023年北京市海淀区小于胎龄儿发生率变化趋势,并对2024—2025年小于胎龄儿发生率进行预测,为制定小于胎龄儿预防控制措施提供科学依据。方法采用Joinpoint软件计算年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)和平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)描述海淀区小于胎龄儿发生率年度变化趋势。根据2013—2022年海淀区小于胎龄儿月发生率构建自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型和Holt-Winters模型,利用2023年小于胎龄儿月发生率评价模型的预测效果,采用预测精度较高的模型对2024—2025年小于胎龄儿发生情况进行预测。结果2013—2023年北京市海淀区小于胎龄儿发生率平均每年上升2.51%。ARIMA(0,1,1)(2,0,0)_(12)为最佳ARIMA模型,预测评价指标中均方根误差(root mean squared errors,RMSE)=0.81,平均绝对误差(mean absoluteerror,MAE)=0.65,平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)=5.33%;Holt-Winters乘法模型的RMSE=1.20,MAE=1.09,MAPE=8.83%。ARIMA模型预测显示,2024—2025年海淀区小于胎龄儿发生率高峰主要在每年7—8月。结论北京市海淀区小于胎龄儿发生率不断上升,ARIMA模型相较于Holt-Winters模型更适合小于胎龄儿发生率的预测,未来相关机构应充分考虑小于胎龄儿出生的季节性,合理协调医疗资源。Objective To analyze the trends of small gestational age infants in the Haidian District of Beijing from 2013 to 2023 and to predict the incidence for 2024 and 2025,providing a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control measures for small gestational age infants.Methods The Joinpoint software was utilized to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)to describe the annual trends of small gestational age infants in Haidian District.An autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model and Holt-Winters model were constructed based on the monthly incidence of small gestational age in the Haidian District from 2013 to 2022.The prediction effect of two models were evaluated by monthly incidence of small gestational age in 2023,and the model with high prediction accuracy was used to predict the incidence of small gestational age in 2024—2025.Results The average annual incidence of infants with small gestational age in the Haidian District of Beijing increased by 2.51%from 2013 to 2023,and the ARIMA(0,1,1)(2,0,0)_(12)was the optimal ARIMA model,the RMSE was 0.81,MAE was 0.65,MAPE was 5.33%;Holt-Winters multiplicative model with RMSE of 1.20,MAE of 1.09,MAPE of 8.83%.The ARIMA model predicted that the peaks of the incidence of small gestational age infants in the Haidian District would mainly be from July to August 2024—2025.Conclusions The incidence of infants with small gestational age in the Haidian District of Beijing is increasing,with the ARIMA model being more suitable for predicting the incidence of small gestational age than the Holt-Winters model.Future efforts should consider the seasonal patterns of preterm births and effectively coordinate medical resources.

关 键 词：小于胎龄儿 发生率 ARIMA模型 Holt-Winters模型 时间趋势 

分 类 号：R17[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]