供应链中断风险的度量与应用:基于词嵌入模型的分析  

Measurement of Supply Chain Disruption Risks and Its Applications:Empirical Analysis Using the Word Embedding Model

作　　者：江伟 王楠 曹少鹏[2] Jiang Wei;Wang Nan;Cao Shaopeng(School of Business,Renmin University of China;School of Business,Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院 [2]郑州航空工业管理学院商学院

出　　处：《南开管理评论》2025年第4期109-120,共12页Nankai Business Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72072071)资助。

摘　　要：随着近年来供应链中断给一国乃至全球带来巨大经济损失和社会影响,如何在事前对企业层面的供应链中断风险进行量化成为学术界和实务界关注的一个重要议题。本文根据我国上市公司年报M D&A部分的文本信息,采用词嵌入模型度量企业层面的供应链中断风险。检验结果表明:这一供应链中断风险指标对于企业未来的会计业绩与市场价值具有预测能力,企业面临的供应链中断风险越高,其未来的会计业绩与市场价值越低。进一步研究发现,在非国有企业且客户集中度越高、海外销售比重越低、企业所属行业竞争程度越高时,本文度量的供应链中断风险指标的上述预测能力越强。最后,当面临较高的供应链中断风险时,企业会储备更多的存货来应对。研究结果表明,本文度量的企业层面的供应链中断风险指标能够在事前向企业提供有关供应链中断风险的特有信息,因而具有良好的有效性。本研究不仅有助于学术界利用企业层面供应链中断风险的量化指标开展相关影响因素和经济后果的大样本经验研究,而且有助于实务界和政府根据该量化指标在事前更好地评估和管控企业的供应链中断风险,以增强供应链的稳定性与韧性。With the deepening of global economic integration and the increasing outsourcing of production processes,the proportion of externally procured raw materials and services in corporate operating costs continues to rise.Simultaneously,to better integrate supply chains,enterprises generally optimize numerous suppliers by establishing and maintaining long-term partnerships with a select group of major suppliers,leading to gradual increases in supplier-base concentration.While the growing reliance on external procurement and heightened supplier-base concentration may yield benefits such as procurement economies of scale and reduced management costs for buyer firms,they simultaneously amplify the risk of supply chain disruptions(SCDs).SCD risk refers to the potential losses incurred by downstream customers when upstream suppliers fail to deliver standardized products or services in a timely and sufficient manner due to internal or external factors.The frequent occurrence of“black swan”events in recent years-including natural disasters,terrorist attacks,public health crises,safety incidents,and trade wars-has exacerbated the economic losses and social impacts of SCDs at corporate,national,and global levels.For instance,the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan disrupted domestic supply networks,resulting in a 0.47%decline in real GDP growth and significant reductions in imports and production at Japanese multinational subsidiaries in the United States.Similarly,the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on global supply chains led to international trade interruptions,inflationary pressures,and widespread unemployment.Compared to the enormous economic losses and social impacts caused by SCD to a country or even the world,there is still limited empirical research in academia on how to identify and respond to SCD risks.One of the main reasons for this is the quantification of SCD risks.Due to the wide range and low frequency of SCD risks,it is difficult for the academic community to directly and comprehensively measure them in advance.

关 键 词：文本信息 词嵌入模型 供应链中断风险 特有信息 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]