基于主成分分析法和综合指数法的油气勘探成效综合评价  

Comprehensively evaluating the petroleum exploration success based on PCA and synthetic index method

作　　者：刘辉 王晶 战薇芸 刘鑫 吴雪峰 陈尘 周子龙 张歆妍 LIU Hui;WANG Jing;ZHAN Weiyun;LIU Xin;WU Xuefeng;CHEN Chen;ZHOU Zilong;ZHANG Xinyan(Exploration and Development Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司勘探开发研究院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《天然气勘探与开发》2025年第2期49-57,共9页Natural Gas Exploration and Development

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团有限公司青年科技专项(编号:2024DQ03028)。

摘　　要：目前常用“储量发现成本”“每口井探明地质储量”等单一指标来评价油气勘探成效,其缺点是:评价方式简单、评价指标未能全面系统反映勘探综合成效的内部构成、评价结果未能客观反映勘探的实际效果,并且难以提出进一步优化勘探成效的具体措施。为了克服上述不足,以近年来的勘探成果数据作为样本,基于所构建的油气勘探成效综合评价模型,对油气勘探成效开展了量化研究。研究结果表明:①以“成效”为核心,选取油气勘探过程中表征勘探成效的重要指标,创建了由4大类、19小项指标组成的初步指标体系;②采用主成分分析法开展指标的筛选,建立了由4大类、13小项指标组成的核心指标体系;③将主成分分析法中单指标综合得分系数占比作为指标权重,利用综合指数评价法,构建了油气勘探成效综合评价模型;④在开展油气勘探成效效果量化的基础上,利用k-means聚类分析法确定了油气勘探成效分级分类的标准。结论认为,所建立的多维度油气勘探成效综合评价指标体系较合理、评价结果与实际情况较符合,有助于油气勘探成效的持续优化。Petroleum exploration success is commonly evaluated using each of indexes,for example reserve-discovered cost and proven geological reserves per well.Such evaluation pattern,however,is too simple,bringing about the evaluated index incapable of mirroring the internal composition in this success thoroughly and systematically,and the evaluated results failing to give objective response to practical benefits.It is hard to make measures in depth.Thus,dependent on some achievement data of recent years,the exploration success was quantitatively appraised through the created comprehensive evaluation model.Results show that(i)with the success as the soul,the preliminary index system covering four categories and nineteen sub-indexes is set up through sorting out principal indexes which may characterize the success at the whole exploration process;(ii)including four categories and thirteen sub-indexes,the core index system is also built by means of the principal component analysis(PCA)to screen indexes;(iii)the scoring coefficient is attained for each index by way of PCA.And taken the coefficient share as the weight,the comprehensive evaluation model is developed through the synthetical index method;and(iv)in accordance with the appraised success,the standard for success division is established by means of k-means cluster analysis.In conclusion,these established systems are rather reasonable and the evaluated results boast the quality of objectivity,which is conducive to the petroleum exploration success in continuous optimization.

关 键 词：主成分分析法 综合指数法 K-MEANS 聚类分析 综合评价 勘探成效 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]