中国近海2023年灾害性海浪分析及2024年预测  

Disastrous wave of China seas in 2023 and prediction for 2024

作　　者：吕睿 徐瑞[3,4] 王娟娟[3,4] 侯放 李本霞[3,4,5] 孟凡昌 朱亚波[6] 魏世哲 蒋学站 LYU Rui;XU Rui;WANG Juanjuan;HOU Fang;LI Benxia;MENG Fanchang;ZHU Yabo;WEI Shizhe;JIANG Xuezhan(China Huaneng Clean Energy Research Institute,Beijing 102209,China;National Energy R&D Center of Offshore Wind Power Engineering and Operation,Beijing 102209,China;National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100081,China;Hohai University,College of Oceanography,Nanjing 210024,China;ChinaHuaneng Guangdong Shantou Offshore Wind Power Co.,Ltd,Shantou 515000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国华能集团清洁能源技术研究院有限公司,北京102209 [2]国家能源海上风电工程与运行技术研发中心,北京102209 [3]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081 [4]国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室,北京100081 [5]河海大学海洋学院,江苏南京210024 [6]华能广东汕头海上风电有限责任公司,广东汕头515000

出　　处：《海洋预报》2025年第2期39-45,共7页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3107803);中国华能集团有限公司科技项目(HNKJ22-H132)。

摘　　要：对2023年中国近海灾害性海浪(有效波高≥4 m)过程及灾情进行总结和分析,并对2023年的预测结果进行检验。根据往年的资料统计结果以及2024年热带气旋和副热带高压的预测分析,结合历史气候态相似年的分析,预测得到2024年中国近海的灾害性海浪过程。预测结果认为:2024年中国近海将发生灾害性海浪过程33~37次,较2023年增多,但较常年平均次数略偏少;灾害性台风浪过程为11~13次,主要影响我国东海、台湾海峡和南海区域;灾害性气旋浪和冷空气浪过程22~24次,与常年平均次数持平。China's offshore areas experienced several hazardous wave events with significant wave heights(Hs)larger than 4 meters in 2023,resulting in varying degrees of damage.In this study,the forecasts of hazardous wave events for 2023 are verified against the observations.Besides,using statistical data of hazardous wave events from 1979 to 2022,and the prediction data for the subtropical high and tropical cyclones in 2024,a prediction of hazardous wave events for 2024 are made based on linear regression and similar year analysis.The results show that,there will be 33~37 hazardous wave events in China's offshore areas in 2024,which is more than that in 2023 but slightly less than the climatic average.Among these hazardous wave events,11~13 events will be caused by typhoons affecting the East China Sea,Taiwan Strait,and South China Sea.22~24 events will be caused by cold air and cyclones,which is close to the climatic average.

关 键 词：海浪灾害 灾害性海浪 海浪灾情 检验 海浪预测 

分 类 号：P731.22[天文地球—海洋科学]