数字经济视域下的对外直接投资区位转移与投资韧性  

Location Transfers and Resilience of Outward Foreign Direct Investment in the Context of Digital Economy

作　　者：綦建红[1,2] 卢秀华 QI Jianhong;LU Xiuhua

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院 [2]山东大学国家治理研究院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2025年第4期1-19,共19页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目“人工智能应用对产业链稳定的影响研究:基于产业外迁的视角”(ZR2024MG051);山东大学人文社科重大项目“‘一带一路’重点国家的数字经济发展对中国外循环质量的影响研究”(23RWZD12)。

摘　　要：中国企业在海外市场的投资韧性,是保障国际循环质量、加速构建双循环新发展格局的重要一环。本文将东道国数字经济纳入异质性企业生产决策理论框架,并以“一带一路”共建国家为例,考察数字经济视域下的对外直接投资区位转移方向对投资韧性的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:中国企业根据东道国数字经济发展水平做出的“逆梯度”区位转移能够显著提升投资韧性,“顺梯度”区位转移则会明显削弱投资韧性;这种影响主要是通过改变融资约束、经营成本、资源配置效率和创新水平来实现的,并因转移阶段、成本和适配度不同而呈现差异化特征;拓展研究进一步显示,行业先行者经验能够发挥示范效应,强化“逆梯度”转移对投资韧性的积极影响、削弱“顺梯度”转移对投资韧性的负面影响;区位转移还通过改变企业在海外市场的竞争韧性,显著影响了母公司的总投资韧性。本文为提升中国企业在海外市场的投资韧性提供了理论参考和经验证据。Investment resilience in overseas markets is essential for ensuring the quality of international circulation and accelerating the construction of the new dual circulation development pattern.This paper incorporates host countries'digital economies into the theoretical framework of heterogeneous firms'production decisions,using“the Belt and Road”partner countries as a case,investigates how digital economy-oriented outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)location transfers influence investment resilience,and explores the underlying mechanisms.The results indicate that Chinese enterprises'“reverse gradient”location transfers,based on the host countries'digital economy development levels,significantly enhance OFDI resilience,whereas“forward gradient”transfers significantly reduce investment resilience.These effects are primarily driven by changes in financing constraints,operational costs,resource allocation efficiency,and innovation capacity.They also vary depending on the stage,cost,and compatibility of location transfers.Further analysis reveals that the experiences of industry pioneers exert a demonstration effect,amplifying the positive impact of“reverse gradient”transfers on investment resilience and mitigating the negative effects of“forward gradient”transfers.Moreover,location transfers significantly affect the overall investment resilience of parent firms by altering their competitive resilience in overseas markets.This study provides theoretical insights and empirical evidence to enhance the investment resilience of Chinese enterprises in overseas markets.

关 键 词：数字经济 区位转移 OFDI韧性 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F279.2[经济管理—企业管理]