突发公共事件、不确定性与企业储蓄行为  

Public emergencies,uncertainty and corporate saving behavior

作　　者：张应武[1] 李晨茜 张彦哲 赵泽昊 ZHANG Yingwu;LI Chenqian;ZHANG Yanze;ZHAO Zehao(International Business School,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China;School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学国际商学院,海南海口570228 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《海南大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2025年第3期133-141,共9页Journal of Hainan University (Humanities & Social Sciences)

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金青年项目(723QN218);海南省哲学社会科学规划项目(HNSK(JD)22-3)。

摘　　要：扩大内需是中国构建新发展格局的战略基点,而对企业储蓄行为的研究是理解收入分配、投资以及经济增长方式转变的逻辑起点。以非典事件为准自然实验,基于代表性启发式和可得性启发式理论选取“受染地区”为处理组,使用双重差分法考察突发公共事件对企业储蓄行为的影响。研究发现,非典事件导致企业储蓄率显著提高,且该影响具有一定持续性,企业储蓄率在事件结束后4—5年才回落至正常水平。预防性动机是其背后关键原因,即企业增加储蓄以应对不确定性,企业投资没有相应地增加。私营和港澳台外资企业、小企业、出口企业以及没有补贴收入的企业储蓄率受影响更显著。While expanding domestic demands is a strategic baseline for China to construct the new development pattern,the study of the corporate saving behavior provides a logical starting point for understanding income distribution,investment,and the transformation of economic development modes.With the outbreak of SARS as a quasi-natural experiment,the"infected areas"are selected as the treatment group on the basis of the theories of representativeness heuristic and availability heuristic.The difference-in-differences method is utilized to examine the impact of public emergencies on the corporate saving behavior.Results show that SARS caused the significant increase in the corporate saving rates,and this impact lasted for 4-5 years after the end of SARS event before the corporate saving rates could decrease to the normal level.The main underlying cause lies in the precautionary motives;in other words,the corporates increased their savings to deal with uncertainty while there was no corresponding increase in the corporate investments.As for the privately owned firms,the Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Foreign Funded Enterprise,small enterprises,the export enterprises,and those without subsidy income,their saving rates are subject to more significant impact.

关 键 词：突发公共事件 企业储蓄 不确定性 预防性动机 

分 类 号：F275.1[经济管理—企业管理]