工业机器人与结构性就业变化:职业和任务的视角  

Industrial Robotics and Employment Structure Change:An Occupational and Task-Based Analysis

作　　者：魏宏冰 李贺 马弘[4] Wei Hongbing;Li He;Ma Hong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [2]北京国有资本运营管理有限公司博士后科研工作站 [3]清华大学社会科学学院博士后流动站 [4]清华大学经济管理学院,100084

出　　处：《世界经济》2025年第4期144-169,共26页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(22CGJ017);国家自然科学基金(72425004);国家社科基金重大项目(23&ZD046)的资助。

摘　　要：在中国制造业智能化转型背景下,研究自动化技术对就业的影响具有重要意义。本文从任务视角出发,深入探讨任务性质与职业替代概率的关系,分析工业机器人冲击对城市就业的影响。基于职业信息网,本文将中国所有职业细分为161种任务组合,使用随机森林方法估计各职业的替代概率。此外,结合中国人口普查和中国家庭追踪调查数据,本文还分析了工业机器人的就业效应。研究结果发现,高替代性职业大多是手工任务密集职业,受自动化影响的净效应为负,主要受替代效应和组成效应的影响;低替代性职业大多是认知任务密集职业,受自动化影响的净效应为正,主要受回补效应、生产率效应及组成效应的影响。城市就业整体向更难替代,包含更多认知任务的方向转型。本文揭示了工业机器人对职业和城市就业结构的影响,为针对不同职业设计的就业政策提供了微观基础。The accelerating global transition towards smart manufacturing, coupled with China's economic restructuring, makes examining automation technology's employment consequences crucial.This study investigates how occupational task composition determines automation susceptibility, with specific emphasis on industrial robotics' transformative effects on China's employment structure. The methodology classifies jobs into 161 distinct task combinations through O*NET task matching to calculate occupation-specific automation probabilities. Drawing on census data and the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), the analysis evaluates four pivotal automation mechanisms: substitution(job displacement through task), reinstatement(increased demand for automation-resistant jobs), productivity(wage premiums in robot-synergistic roles) and composition(cross-sectoral labour reallocation).Collectively, these dynamics propel occupational polarization and industrial structural transformation.First, this study demonstrates that industrial robotics have reconfigured urban employment patterns through both substitution and reinstatement mechanisms. A twofold increase in robot penetration rate is associated with a 5.22% contraction in employment, with occupations at the 75th percentile of substitution susceptibility experiencing a 3.38% greater job decline than those at the 25th percentile.Crucially, manual task-intensive occupations bear the brunt of substitution-driven displacement, whereas cognitive task-intensive occupations exhibit robust reinstatement effects, registering positive employment growth. Second, automation technology has precipitated structural shifts in urban labour markets. Between 2000 and 2015, China witnessed a decline of 3.2 percentage points in the share of workers employed in high-substitution-risk occupations-a trend underpinned by automation's composition effect, as labour migrated from highly automatable sectors towards those reliant on less replaceable, cognitive task-intensive work. Finally, robotics adoption has ind

关 键 词：工业机器人 任务替代 就业结构 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]