多事件下城市生命线系统运营期安全韧性评估方法  

Research on safety resilience assessment method for urban lifeline system operation period under multiple events

作　　者：赵冬月 陈乾 聂士斌[1,3] 陈长坤[4] 彭伟[1,3] 任师华 ZHAO Dongyue;CHEN Qian;NIE Shibin;CHEN Changkun;PENG Wei;REN Shihua(Safe and Efficient Mining Anhui University Engineering Technology Research Center,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China;School of Safety Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China;School of Public Security and Emergency Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Hefei 231131,China;Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学矿山安全高效开采安徽省高校工程技术研究中心,淮南232001 [2]安徽理工大学安全科学与工程学院,淮南232001 [3]安徽理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院,合肥231131 [4]中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所,长沙410075

出　　处：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第4期732-741,共10页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：矿山安全高效开采安徽省高校工程技术研究中心开放课题(SECM2205),安徽省自然科学基金青年项目(2308085QG242);安徽省高等学校科学研究重点项目(2023AH051183);安徽理工大学引进人才科研启动基金(2022yjrc40);国家自然科学基金重大项目(72091512)。

摘　　要：为综合衡量单个城市生命线系统在多事件情景下的运营期安全韧性水平,该文通过分析突发事件下系统安全韧性作用机制,考虑抵御力、恢复力和适应力等主要因素,构建了城市生命线系统运营期安全韧性评估模型和综合评估方法,并以2005—2009年香港港铁东铁线运营系统为例进行应用分析。结果表明,运营期不同次数的突发事件下,城市生命线系统安全韧性机制存在显著差异,单事件中系统主要依赖抵御力和恢复力,多事件中强调系统适应力的持续优化;所建方法可结合系统运营期平均韧性和累积韧性,综合评估安全韧性水平;提高系统运营期综合韧性是一个长期波动上升的过程,持续优化系统适应力,兼顾提升平均韧性和累积韧性是关键措施。该研究成果可为深化理解城市生命线系统韧性内涵,提升其安全运营水平提供借鉴。[Objective]The operational safety resilience of urban lifeline systems refers to their ability to maintain critical functions and recover swiftly when faced with multiple disruptive events during their operational period.This resilience is crucial for ensuring the safe and uninterrupted operation of these critical systems.However,existing resilience evaluation methods often risk inaccuracies under multi-event scenarios,making it challenging to accurately assess the systemsoverall resilience.To address this issue,this paper proposes a comprehensive resilience evaluation model and methodology tailored for urban lifeline systems during their operational phase.The approach considers multi-event contexts and is built on a detailed analysis of resilience mechanisms.It incorporates key factors such as resistance,recovery,and adaptability.[Methods]This study presents an evaluation method for assessing the operational safety resilience of urban lifeline systems under multi-event scenarios.The methodology is structured around three main steps:analyzing resilience mechanisms,constructing a resilience evaluation model for multi-event contexts,and applying the method in a case study.First,using resilience curve theory,scenario assumptions and theoretical deductions were used to analyze the specific roles and effects of resistance,recovery,and adaptability during operational performance loss and recovery under both single and multiple disruptive event scenarios.This analysis facilitated a systematic understanding of the resilience mechanisms governing urban lifeline systems.Second,building on existing resilience metrics,the study identified misjudgment risks and limitations in current resilience evaluation models.This led to the development of an enhanced model that integrates the advantages of existing methods.The improved model accounts for resilience mechanisms,computational efficiency,and reasonable distribution.An exponential function was utilized to establish an evaluation model for urban lifeline system resilience durin

关 键 词：城市生命线系统 平均韧性 累积韧性 综合韧性 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]