2014-2019年我国极端降水与其他感染性腹泻的关联性研究  

Association between extreme precipitation and other infectious diarrhea in China from 2014 to 2019

作　　者：张骁驰 吕婷婷 于文浩 李国傲 高杉杉 赵琦 王立友[2] ZHANG Xiaochi;LYU Tingting;YU Wenhao;LI Guoao;GAO Shanshan;ZHAO Qi;WANG Liyou(Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China;Dezhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Dezhou 253700,Shandong,China;Department of Gastroenterology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;Department of Occupational and Environmental Health,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院流行病学系,山东济南250012 [2]德州市疾病预防控制中心,山东德州253700 [3]山东第一医科大学第一附属医院(山东省千佛山医院)消化科,山东济南250014 [4]山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系,山东济南250012

出　　处：《山东大学学报(医学版)》2025年第4期100-105,121,共7页Journal of Shandong University:Health Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82203149);山东省优秀青年基金(海外,2022HWYQ-055);山东省青年基金(ZR2021QH349)。

摘　　要：目的探讨我国2014-2019年极端降水事件与其他感染性腹泻(other infectious diarrhea,OID)发病的关系,以及气候特征和干旱水平对极端降水相关OID风险的影响,为制定OID防控措施提供依据。方法收集2014-2019年我国31个省、直辖市、自治区(无香港地区、澳门地区、台湾省)的OID报告病例数据和同期水文气象数据,采用基于类泊松回归的二阶段时间序列分析方法量化极端降水事件频次与OID发病风险的关联;采用交互模型研究自然气候区及6个月标准化降水蒸散指数量化的干旱水平的修饰作用。结果2014-2019年研究区域内累计报告OID病例5595698例;极端降水事件频次与OID风险呈显著正相关,相对危险度为1.03(95%CI:1.03~1.04);暖温带半湿润地区极端降水相关的OID风险最高;北亚热带湿润地区、边缘热带湿润地区以及中温带干旱地区的极端降水相关OID风险显著低于暖温带半湿润地区(P<0.05)。干旱水平对极端降水的修饰作用明显;严重干旱地区在面临极端降水时的OID风险较高。结论极端降水频次与OID发病风险呈正相关,可作为不同地区制定针对性预防措施的依据。Objective To provide a foundation for developing targeted prevention and control measures for other infectious diarrhea(OID)by investigating the association between extreme precipitation and the risk of in China from 2014 to 2019,and assessing the impact of climatic characteristics and drought levels on the OID risk associated with extreme precipitation.Methods Data on OID cases and hydrometeorological conditions were collected from 31 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions of China between 2014 and 2019.A two-stage time series analysis based on quasi-Poisson regression was employed to quantify the association between the frequency of extreme precipitation events and the risk of OID.Additionally,the modifying effects of natural sub-regions and drought levels(quantified by the 6-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index)were analyzed.Results A total of 5,595,698 OID cases were reported in the study area from 2014 to 2019.A significant positive association between the frequency of extreme precipitation events and the risk of OID was observed,with a relative risk of 1.03(95%CI:1.03-1.04).The risk of OID associated with extreme precipitation was highest in the warm-temperate humid and sub-humid north China.In contrast,the risk in the subtropical humid central and south China,the tropic humid south China,and the temperate and warm-temperate desert of northwest China was significantly lower than in the warm-temperate humid and sub-humid north China(P<0.05).The modifying effect of drought levels was significant,with a higher risk of diarrhea associated with extreme precipitation under high drought conditions.Conclusion The frequency of extreme precipitation events is positively associated with the risk of OID which has provided a foundation for the development of region-specific prevention measures for OID.

关 键 词：极端降水 其他感染性腹泻 时间序列分析 关联性研究 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]