数字技术、产业结构与城市创新质量的非线性关系——基于中国282个城市的实证研究  

The Nonlinear Relationship Between Digital Technology,Industrial Structure and Urban Innovation Quality:An Empirical Study Based on 282 Cities in China

作　　者：郭爱君[1] 徐莺歌 杨春林 GUO Aijun;XU Yingge;YANG Chunlin

机构地区：[1]兰州大学经济学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2025年第4期90-106,共17页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“黄河流域高质量发展下兰州—西宁城市群产业空间结构优化研究”(20XJL008),项目负责人:郭爱君。

摘　　要：数字技术作为城市创新的重要引擎之一,由于其作用机理的复杂性,数字技术对城市创新质量的影响呈现出非线性特征。以往研究内容侧重于线性效应,本文基于中国2010—2022年282个地级市的面板数据,建立具有阈值和动态特征的面板平滑转换回归模型(PSTR),探讨数字技术、产业结构与城市创新质量之间的深层关联。研究发现:数字技术与城市创新质量之间存在显著的倒“U”型关系。产业结构合理化由低位态向高位态转换时,数字技术对城市创新质量的影响呈现“U”型曲线特征;当产业结构高级化向高位态转化时,数字技术对城市创新质量的影响呈现倒“U”型曲线特征。异质性分析表明,产业结构合理化的作用下,政府关注度提高了数字技术对城市创新质量的影响;数字技术对低产业结构水平城市的边际作用强于高产业结构水平城市。因此,应以优化产业结构为基础配套措施,加强政府对数字化的关注度,充分发挥数字技术对城市创新的推动作用。As one of the important engines of urban innovation,the impact of digital technology on the quality of urban innovation presents nonlinear characteristics due to the complexity of its mechanism of action.Previous studies have focused on linear effects.Based on the panel data of 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2022,this paper establishes a panel smooth transition regression model(PSTR)with thresholds and dynamic features to explore the deeper correlations between digital technology,industrial structure,and urban innovation quality.It is found that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between digital technology and urban innovation quality.When the rationalization of the industrial structure shifts from the low state to the high state,the influence of digital technology on the quality of urban innovation is characterized by a“U”curve;when the rationalization of the industrial structure transforms to the high state,the influence of digital technology on the quality of urban innovation is characterized by an inverted“U”curve.When the upgrading of the industrial structure advances to a high state,the influence of digital technology on the quality of urban innovation shows an inverted“U”curve.Heterogeneity analysis shows that,with the rationalization of industrial structure,the government's attention increases the impact of digital technology on urban innovation quality;the marginal effect of digital technology on cities with low industrial structure levels is stronger than that on cities with high industrial structure levels.Consequently,the optimization of industrial structure should be used as a basic supporting measure to strengthen the government's attention to digitalization and give full play to the role of digital technology in promoting urban innovation.

关 键 词：数字技术 城市创新质量 产业结构 面板平滑转换回归模型 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]