中国企业数字技术风险暴露对企业价值的影响——来自大语言模型的文本分析证据  

Impact of Digital Technology Risk Exposure on Corporate Value in Chinese Firms:Evidence from Text Analysis Using Large Language Models

作　　者：陆瑶[1] 施函青 周欣怡 LU Yao;SHI Hanqing;ZHOU Xinyi(School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University;Beijing Kuaishou Advertising Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,100083 [2]北京快手广告有限公司,100085

出　　处：《经济研究》2025年第2期73-89,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790047);清华大学经济管理学院“影响力”提升计划项目(2022051006);清华大学自主科研计划文科专项项目(2021THZWYY09);2024年文科建设“双高”计划创新方向建设专项的资助。

摘　　要：做优做强数字经济,需要统筹发展和安全两个方面,高度重视新一轮数字技术变革中的风险防范问题。本文利用FinBERT和GPT大语言模型对A股上市公司年报管理层讨论与分析部分进行文本分析,构建多层次数字技术风险暴露程度的衡量指标,探讨我国企业数字技术风险的暴露情况及对企业市场价值的影响。研究发现:第一,年龄较大、杠杆率较高、资产收益率较低、公司治理水平较差的企业面临更严重的数字技术风险暴露。第二,数字技术风险暴露会显著降低公司的长期市场价值。其中,数据安全风险和网络安全风险均有明显负面影响。在利用美国同行业数字技术风险暴露作为工具变量缓解内生性问题后,本文实证结果保持稳健。第三,主要的影响机制在于数字技术风险通过数字基础设施的互联性,对供应链生产网络产生溢出效应,且给企业带来长久的声誉损失。本文的结论对如何平衡数字化转型中的收益与风险、推进企业持续优化数字化转型路径、护航数字经济长期健康发展具有政策意义。With the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution,emerging digital technologies—such as 5G,big data,cloud computing,blockchain,and the industrial Internet—have become essential components of new quality productive forces and key drivers of high-quality development in the real economy.However,technological innovation is a doubleedged sword.While digital transformation brings significant benefits,such as cost reduction,productivity enhancement,and efficiency gains,it also introduces novel risks.These digital technology risks exhibit distinctive characteristics com-pared to traditional risks,including duality,persistence,spillover effects,damage to intangible assets,and opacity.In this context,digitalization is not merely a tool for improving productivity but also a challenge for security and governance.The success of digital transformation lies not only in the adoption of technology but also in a firm's ability to balance its benefits and risks.The capability to harness technological advancements while effectively managing risks has become a critical concern in corporate governance and policy-making,bearing significant implications for optimizing digital transformation pathways and ensuring the sustained and healthy development of the digital economy.This study leverages FinBERT and GPT-based large language models to conduct a textual analysis of the Management Discussion and Analysis sections in the annual reports of A-share listed companies,constructing a multidimensional measure of digital technology risk exposure.Based on this framework,we analyze the extent of digital technology risk exposure in Chinese firms and its impact on corporate market value.Our key findings are as follows.(1)Firms with higher digital technology risk exposure tend to exhibit certain characteristics:they are generally older,more leveraged,less profitable,and governed by lower corporate governance standards.(2)Digital technology risk exposure significantly reduces firms'long-term market value.Both data security risks and cybersecur

关 键 词：数字技术风险 供应链外溢 大语言模型 企业价值 数据安全 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]