无废城市政策实施效果测度研究——基于PMC-HCW模型的实证分析  

The measurement of the implementation effect of the policy of zero waste cities--An empirical analysis based on the PMC-HCW model

作　　者：杨卓璠 周莹 罗泽松[1] YANG Zhuofan;ZHOU Ying;LUO Zesong(School of Management,Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang 110168,China;School of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳建筑大学管理学院,沈阳110168 [2]东北大学工商管理学院,沈阳110819

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2025年第2期1-11,共11页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目青年项目(L21CGL023)。

摘　　要：无废城市是生态文明建设的重要主题,分析其政策文本与政策实施效果之间的联动关系,有助于我国无废城市建设工作的高质量发展。文章首先运用PMC指数模型对试点无废城市的政策文本进行量化评价;然后融入基于反事实思想的HCW模型,以2003—2021年试点无废城市的面板数据为基础,定量评价试点城市的政策效应;最后基于k均值聚类的结果,分析政策文本与政策效应之间的关联。结果表明:所选取的8项政策文本中5项评级为优秀、3项评级为良好,政策文本具有合理性和可行性;无废城市政策效应显著促进了试点城市的固废处置利用能力,且政策效应在时间上呈现边际递减趋势,在空间上从北至南呈现微弱下降趋势;政策文本制定的优劣对政策效应的好坏具有显著的影响作用。Zero waste city is an important theme in the construction of ecological civilization.Analyzing the linkage relationship between its policy texts and the effects of policy implementation can contribute to the high-quality development of the construction of zero waste cities in China.Firstly,the PMC index model was applied in this article to conduct a quantitative evaluation of the policy texts of the pilot zero waste cities.Then,the HCW model based on the counterfactual thinking was integrated,and based on the panel data of the pilot zero waste cities from 2003 to 2021,the policy effects of the pilot cities were quantitatively evaluated.Finally,the correlation between the policy texts and the policy effects was analyzed based on the results of the k-means clustering.The results showed that among the 8 selected policy texts,5 were rated as excellent and 3 were rated as good,indicating that the policy texts were reasonable and feasible;the policy effects of zero waste cities significantly promoted the solid waste disposal and utilization capacity of the pilot cities,and the policy effects showed a marginal diminishing trend over time,and a slight declining trend from north to south in space;the quality of the formulation of policy texts had a significant impact on the quality of the policy effects.

关 键 词：无废城市 政策评价 PMC指数模型 HCW模型 K均值聚类 

分 类 号：X705[环境科学与工程—环境工程]