隧道内驾驶员违规换道行为心理因素预测分析  

Predictive analysis of psychological factors of drivers'lane changing violations in tunnels

作　　者：姚国明 张明正 朱敏清 YAO Guoming;ZHANG Mingzheng;ZHU Minqing(Yunnan Baolu Expressway Co.,Ltd,Kunming,Yunnan 650299,China;School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,He-bei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;School of Architecture&Art Design,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300130,China)

机构地区：[1]云南保泸高速公路有限公司,云南昆明650299 [2]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300401 [3]河北工业大学建筑与艺术设计学院,天津300130

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报》2025年第2期78-83,共6页Journal of Hebei University of Technology

基　　金：云南省交通运输厅科技项目(云交科教便[2023]148号);河北省重点研发计划资助项目(22370801D);国家自然科学基金资助项目(5237120905)。

摘　　要：在长隧道或超长隧道环境中,长时间跟驰低速车辆所引发违规变道行为频发,安全隐患巨大。为探究和预测驾驶员在隧道内违规换道行为的心理因素,在驾驶员交通心理行为问卷调查基础上,构建基于计划行为理论(TPB)和原型意愿模型(PWM)的隧道内驾驶员违规换道行为的结构方程模型,对TPB和PWM在隧道内驾驶员违规换道行为中的预测效用进行对比分析,并提出针对性干预措施。结果显示,TPB和PWM模型均能预测隧道内违规换道行为,但PWM模型预测效用更高;换道意愿对违规换道行为的预测效用高于换道意向,表明该行为由社会反应性决策主导;行为态度、知觉行为控制、原型好感度和原型相似性对换道意向、换道意愿和换道行为有显著正向影响。In the long tunnel or ultra-long tunnel environment,the traffic flow obstructions caused by following low-speed vehicles often prompts drivers to take illegal lane changes.In order to explore and predict the psychological factors of drivers′lane-changing violations in the tunnel,this paper constructs a structural equation model of drivers′illegal lane-changing behavior in the tunnel based on theory of planned behavior(TPB)and prototype willingness model(PWM)based on the questionnaire survey of drivers′traffic psychological behavior.The prediction effect of TPB and PWM on drivers′lane-changing violations in tunnel is compared and analyzed,and the corresponding intervention measures are put forward.The results show that both TPB and PWM models can predict illegal lane-changing behavior in tunnels,but the PWM model is more effective.The prediction effect of lane-changing intention on illegal lane-changing behavior is higher than that of lane-changing intention,indicating that it is dominated by socially reactive decision making.Behavioral attitude,perceived behavioral control,archetypal favorability and archetypal similarity all have significant positive effects on lane-changing intention,lane-changing intention and lane-changing behavior.

关 键 词：交通安全 隧道 换道行为 计划行为理论 原型意愿模型 结构方程模型 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]