黄河几字弯能源资源型城市发展需水预测  

Prediction of Water Demand for the Development of Energy Resources⁃Oriented Cities Along the Ji⁃Shaped Bend Region of Yellow River

作　　者：张景翔 王忠静 陈小泽[2] 刘丹 ZHANG Jingxiang;WANG Zhongjing;CHEN Xiaoze;LIU Dan(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;School of Civil Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院,宁夏银川750021 [2]清华大学土木水利学院,北京100084

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第5期72-79,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243601)。

摘　　要：为分析黄河几字弯能源资源型城市的需用水量变化,利用需水库兹涅茨曲线(WEKC),分析了黄河几字弯14个能源资源型城市2000—2022年人均用水量和人均GDP的关系,通过变分模态(VMD)分解进一步提取区域用水变化特征,最后采用支持向量回归(SVR)对未来需水量进行了预测。结果表明:研究期黄河几字弯能源资源型城市WEKC曲线呈现上升—下降—再上升—再下降的由U形和倒U形组成的多种连接形态,未来仍将呈现需水量增长和下降交替的形态。WEKC曲线具有波动特征,随经济发展表现出周期性和规律性,能够反映区域发展历程中的需水演变规律。根据研究结论,对WEKC曲线未来研究方向提出了建议。In order to analyze the changes of water demand of energy resources⁃based cities in the“Ji⁃shaped bend”of the Yellow River,based on the water Economy Kuznets Curve⁃WEKC,the relationship between per capita water consumption and per capita GDP in 14 re⁃sources⁃based cities along the Yellow River during 2000-2022 was analyzed.The variation characteristics of regional water use were further extracted by variational mode(VMD)decomposition,and the future water demand was predicted by support vector regression(SVR).The results show that the WEKC curve of the“Ji⁃shaped bend”of the Yellow River energy resources⁃based cities in the study period presents a variety of connection patterns consisting of U⁃shaped and inverted U⁃shaped,and will continue to show an interweaving pattern of water de⁃mand growth and decline.The WEKC curve is characterized by fluctuation and shows periodicity and regularity with economic development,which is helpful for in⁃depth exploration of the evolution law of water demand in the course of regional development.Based on the research conclusions,relevant suggestions are put forward for the future research direction of WEKC curve.

关 键 词：需水量预测 能源资源型城市 高质量发展 库兹涅茨曲线 黄河几字弯 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1