黄河下游农业生态用水效率及其与经济发展脱钩关系研究  

Study on the Spatial⁃Temporal Evolution and Decoupling Effect of Agricultural Ecological Water Use Efficiency in the Lower Yellow River

作　　者：马路 薛选登[2] MA Lu;XUE Xuandeng(School of Economics and Management,Guangdong Technology College,Zhaoqing 526000,China;School of Business,Henan University of Science and Technology,Luoyang 471000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东理工学院经济管理学院,广东肇庆526000 [2]河南科技大学商学院,河南洛阳471000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第5期93-99,105,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(18BGL165,19BJY140);2024年河南省科技厅软科学项目(242400410431)。

摘　　要：揭示黄河下游农业生态用水效率的时空分布特征,厘清农业生态用水效率与农业经济发展的脱钩关系,可以助推农业高质量发展。采用非期望产出的SBM模型和ArcGIS软件分析2013—2022年黄河下游农业生态用水效率的时空演变规律,运用Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI模型探究农业生态用水效率与农业经济发展的脱钩状态,结果表明:黄河下游农业生态用水效率均值由0.616降至0.509,整体呈波动下降趋势,空间分布呈东西高、中间低的格局;黄河下游农业生态用水效率的总体差异扩大,省内差异是总体差异的主要来源;农业生态用水效率与农业经济发展总体呈强脱钩态势,脱钩状态不理想,技术效应促进脱钩,农业用水强度和耕种规模抑制脱钩。Revealing the spatial⁃temporal distribution characteristics of agricultural ecological water use efficiency in the Lower Yellow River and clarifying the decoupling relationship between agricultural ecological water use efficiency and economic development can promote high⁃quality agricultural development.The SBM model of unexpected output and ArcGIS software were adopted to analyze the spatial⁃temporal evo⁃lution law of agricultural ecological water use efficiency in the Lower Yellow River from 2013 to 2022.The Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI model were used to explore the decoupling status of agricultural ecological water use efficiency and agricultural economic development.The results show that the average efficiency of agricultural ecological water use in the Lower Yellow River decreases from 0.616 to 0.509,showing an overall fluctuating downward trend.The spatial distribution presents a pattern of being high in the east and west and low in the middle.The overall difference in agricultural ecological water use efficiency in the Lower Yellow River has widened,and regional differences are the main source of overall differences.The overall decoupling trend between agricultural ecological water use efficiency and economic de⁃velopment is strong,and the decoupling state is not ideal.Technological effects promote decoupling,while agricultural water use intensity and cultivation scale inhibit decoupling.

关 键 词：农业生态用水效率 时空演变 脱钩效应 核密度估计 Dagum基尼系数 黄河下游 

分 类 号：X171.3[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F323[经济管理—产业经济]