考虑复杂下垫面的台风风场模型及其在巨灾风险管理中的应用  

Wind Field Model for Typhoon Considering Complex Underlying Surface and Its Application in Catastrophe Risk Management

作　　者：熊政辉 宫婷 方平治[5] XIONG Zhenghui;GONG Ting;FANG Pingzhi(Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China;Postdoctoral Workstation of China Reinsurance(Group)Corporation,Beijing 100033,China;Unicom Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100032,China;China RE Catastrophe Risk Management Company,Ltd.,Chongqing 400025,China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]中国再保险(集团)股份有限公司博士后工作站,北京100033 [3]联通数字科技有限公司,北京100032 [4]中再巨灾风险管理股份有限公司,重庆400025 [5]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期56-63,共8页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2142206)。

摘　　要：台风巨灾模型对于台风巨灾风险管理具有重要作用,台风风场模型是其核心。利用Georgiou台风风场模型,融入西北太平洋最大风速半径和Holland参数B的最新研究成果,构建了适用于复杂下垫面条件的台风风场模型。根据所选择气象站提供的实测风速和来自台风最佳路径集的台风强度数据,结合现行建筑结构荷载规范中关于我国沿海区域和重点城市的基本风压分布,对该模型进行了验证。结果表明:该模型稳定且可靠。同时,由该模型得到的台风风场数据,可量化不同区域承灾体的损失概率,进一步可厘定不同保险费率。最后将该模型应用于台风巨灾风险管理中,并以广东省为例进行了不同区域保险费率的厘定,该厘定结果与实际情况相符,说明其可为巨灾风险管理、保险和再保险业务提供技术支持。Typhoon catastrophe models play a crucial role in typhoon catastrophe risk management,with typhoon wind field models constituting their core component.This study developed a typhoon wind field model applicable to complex underlying surface conditions by integrating the Georgiou typhoon wind field model with the latest research findings on the radius of maximum wind speed in the Northwest Pacific and Holland parameter B.The model was validated using measured wind speed data from selected meteorological stations and typhoon intensity data derived from the best-track dataset,in conjunction with the basic wind pressure distribution specified in current structural load codes for China′s coastal regions and key cities.Results demonstrate that the model exhibits stability and reliability.Furthermore,the typhoon wind field data generated by this model enables quantitative assessment of loss probability for disaster-bearing entities across different regions,thereby facilitating the determination of region-specific insurance premium rates.Finally,the model was applied to typhoon catastrophe risk management practice,with Guangdong Province serving as a case study for regional insurance rate determination.The derived rates align with actual conditions,confirming the model′s potential to provide technical support for catastrophe risk management,insurance,and reinsurance operations.

关 键 词：台风巨灾 风险管理 台风风场模型 复杂下垫面 费率区划 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]