极端低温胁迫下东北地区社会脆弱性时空格局  

Spatiotemporal pattern of vulnerability in extremely low-temperature society in Northeast China

作　　者：刘家福 孔祥力 祝悦 周林鹏 张硕[1] LIU Jia-fu;KONG Xiang-li;ZHU Yue;ZHOU Lin-peng;ZHANG Shuo(College of Geographical Science and Tourism,Jilin Normal University,Siping 136000,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,吉林四平136000

出　　处：《吉林师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期119-127,共9页Journal of Jilin Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41977411);吉林省教育厅科学研究项目(JJKH20240563CY);省级大学生创新创业训练项目(S202410203096)。

摘　　要：基于社会脆弱性分析工具,结合低温事件的社会属性,以东北地区37个地级市为研究对象,通过组合赋权法构建了低温社会脆弱性评价模型,划分低温社会脆弱性等级,分析了2004—2019年城市低温社会脆弱性时空格局,并探究了主要影响维度.结果表明:城市社会脆弱性指数先降后升,城市间社会发展差距减小,东北部脆弱性较高,脆弱性等级城市空间集聚不明显.2004—2019年,城市低温暴露度指数先升后降.2004—2009年暴露度增加13.99%,受寒潮和低温天数增加影响;2009—2014年变化平稳,仅升高0.36%,北部高暴露度城市南移;2014—2019年暴露度下降1.47%,高暴露度城市减少,南北分布格局发生变化,东部和北部城市暴露度降低,整体南移趋势明显.低温暴露度影响型城市最多,占43.2%;适应能力影响型为34.5%;社会敏感性影响型最少,占22.3%.低温社会脆弱性主要受暴露环境控制,但暴露环境难以改变,因此研究低温脆弱性时空格局及其影响维度对于减轻脆弱性、提高应对能力具有重要意义.Based on social vulnerability analysis tools and the social attributes of low-temperature events,this study focuses on 37 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China.A low-temperature social vulnerability assessment model is constructed using a combination of weighting methods to classify vulnerability levels and analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of urban low-temperature social vulnerability from 2004 to 2019.The study also explores the main influencing dimensions.The results showed that the urban social vulnerability index initially decreased and then increased,with a reduction in the social development gap between cities.Vulnerability was higher in the northeastern region,and there was no significant spatial clustering of cities across different vulnerability levels.Between 2004 and 2019,the urban low-temperature exposure index first increased and then decreased.From 2004 to 2009,the exposure index increased by 13.99%,influenced by the increased frequency of cold waves and prolonged low-temperature days.From 2009 to 2014,the exposure index remained relatively stable,increasing by only 0.36%,with a southward shift of high-exposure cities in the north.Between 2014 and 2019,the exposure index decreased by 1.47%,with fewer high-exposure cities and a shift in the north-south distribution pattern.Exposure levels in some eastern and northern cities decreased,showing a clear trend of shifting southward.The largest proportion of cities were influenced by low-temperature exposure(43.2%),followed by adaptive capacity(34.5%),with the fewest cities affected by social sensitivity(22.3%).Low-temperature social vulnerability is primarily influenced by exposure environments,which are difficult to change.Therefore,studying the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of low-temperature vulnerability is crucial for mitigating vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity.

关 键 词：极端低温 社会脆弱性 时空格局 东北地区 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]