基于大气污染物流动的新型冠状病毒远距离传播假说  

A Hypothesis on Long-Distance Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via Atmospheric Pollutant Flow

作　　者：范东辉 张爽 付天一 何浩 郭磊 代黎燕 郑剑宁 FAN DongHui;ZHANG Shuang;FU Tianyi;HE hao;GUO lei;DAI Liyan;ZHENG JianNing(Harbin Customs subordinate Suifenhe Customs,Suifenhe Heilongjiang 157399,China;Manzhouli Customs,Manzhouli Neimenggu 021499,China;Harbin Normal University,Harbin Heilongjiang 150080,China;Shanxi Institute of Technology,Jincheng Shanxi 048011,China;Chengdu Customs,Chengdu Sichuan 610225,China;Ningbo Customs,Ningbo Zhejiang 315012,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨海关隶属绥芬河海关,黑龙江绥芬河157399 [2]满洲里海关,内蒙古满洲里021499 [3]哈尔滨师范大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [4]山西科技学院,山西晋城048011 [5]成都海关,四川成都610225 [6]宁波海关,浙江宁波315012

出　　处：《口岸非传统安全学刊》2025年第2期80-86,共7页

摘　　要：本文提出一种基于大气污染物流动的新型冠状病毒远距离传播假说。利用混合单粒子拉格朗日综合轨迹模型(Hybrid single-particle lagrangian integrated trajectory,HYSPLIT),分析俄罗斯阿穆尔州布拉戈维申斯克市(以下简称布市)至中国黑河市的大气污染物流动状态及持续时间,并对其与黑河新冠疫情的关联性进行回顾性调查和验证。研究发现,布市至黑河的大气污染物持续流动时间对黑河疫情的发生具有显著影响。当布市存在较多病例且大气污染物持续流动时间达到30小时以上时,黑河发生疫情的概率显著升高(概率为85.7%)。相反,当大气污染物持续流动时间较短时,即使布市病例数量极高,黑河也未记录到疫情发生。本研究结果表明,新型冠状病毒借助大气污染物进行远距离传播具有较高的可能性。This study hypothesizes that SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted over long distances via atmospheric pollutant flow.Using the hybrid single-particle lagrangian integrated trajectory(HYSPLIT)model,we analyzed the flow status and duration of atmospheric pollutants from Blagoveshchensk,Amur Oblast,Russia(hereinafter referred to as Blagoveshchensk)to Heihe,China,and conducted a retrospective investigation and validation of its correlation with the COVID-19 outbreak in Heihe.The study found that the duration of continuous flow of atmospheric pollutants from Blagoveshchensk to Heihe significantly affected the occurrence of the epidemic in Heihe.When there were a large number of cases in Blagoveshchensk and the continuous flow duration of atmospheric pollutants exceeded 30 hours,the probability of an outbreak in Heihe significantly increased(with a probability of 85.7%).Conversely,when the duration of atmospheric pollutant flow was short,no epidemic was recorded in Heihe,even if the number of cases in Blagoveshchensk was extremely high.The results of this study suggest that the long-distance transmission of the novel coronavirus via atmospheric pollutants is highly possible.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒 远距离传播 大气污染物 HYSPLIT 轨迹模型 

分 类 号：X18[环境科学与工程—环境科学]