面向2035年的师范生招生规模动态分析  

Dynamic Analysis of the Enrollment Scale of Normal Students Targeting 2035

作　　者：郭志慜 江俊儒 GUO Zhi-min;JIANG Jun-ru(College of Teacher Education South China Normal University,Guangdong,Guangzhou,510631,China)

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学教师教育学部,广东广州510631

出　　处：《教师教育研究》2025年第2期58-70,共13页Teacher Education Research

基　　金：广东省2023教育科学规划项目(高等教育专项)《‘新师范’背景下高校执行‘公费定向培养粤东粤西粤北地区中小学教师’项目过程追踪与效果评估研究》(项目编号:2023GXJK271)的研究成果。

摘　　要：教师队伍建设对教育强国战略至关重要,师范生招生规模直接影响未来师资供给与质量。本研究采用时间序列分析法,预测了2026-2035年学龄人口数量,并基于生师比测算了教师需求量,同时确定了师范生与教师数的比值,据此推算出师范生招生规模。研究还进一步细分了基础教育不同学段、地区及学科对师范生的需求。结果显示,学龄人口数虽呈下降趋势,但师范生需求量却逐年上升。至2035年,师范生总招生数预计为58.65-76.93万人,其中研究生招生数4.58-8.43万人,本科招生数54.07-68.50万人。小学对师范生需求最高且增速最快,高中则对师范生学历要求最高。城乡间师范生需求存在差异,城镇需求增长较快,乡村需求逐年降低。学科方面,语数外仍为培养重点,但艺体学科需求显著增加,未来有望持续增长。基于此,本文提出以下建议:动态优化师范生培养规模、优化小学生师比、强化教师学历提升、建立教师编制动态调整机制。The construction of the teaching workforce is crucial to the Education Power Strategy,as the scale of teacher education enrollment directly impacts the future supply and quality of teachers.This study employs Time Series Analysis method to forecast the school-age population from 2026 to 2035,which estimates the demand for teachers based on student-teacher ratios,and determines the ratio of teacher education students to total teachers,thereby projecting the required enrollment scale for teacher education programs.Furthermore,the study disaggregates the demand for teacher education students across different educational stages,regions,and disciplines in basic education.The results indicate that although the school-age population is expected to decline,the demand for teacher education students will continue to rise annually.By 2035,the total enrollment of teacher education students is projected to reach 586,500 to 769,300,including 45,800 to 84,300 graduate students and 540,700 to 685,000 undergraduate students.Among educational stages,primary education exhibits the highest demand for teacher education students with the fastest growth rate,while secondary education places the highest emphasis on teacher qualifications.Regionally,urban areas are experiencing a rapid increase in demand for teacher education students,whereas rural areas are witnessing a gradual decline.In terms of subject distribution,Chinese,mathematics,and English remain the primary focus of teacher education training,but the demand for arts,physical education,and music teachers is rising significantly and is expected to continue growing in the future.Based on these findings,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations:dynamically optimizing teacher education enrllment,improving the student-teacher ratio in primary schools,enhancing teacher qualification levels,and establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for teacher staffing.

关 键 词：师范生招生规模 学龄人口变化 生师比调整 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：C650[社会学]