基于年龄-时期-队列模型的1992—2021年中国胰腺癌发病和死亡分析  

Analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1992 to 2021 based on the age-period-cohort model

作　　者：胡嘉宝 华莎[1] 陈微[2] 马丽娜[1] Hu Jiabao;Hua Sha;Chen Wei;Ma Lina(Outpatient Center Operation Room,First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University,Harbin 150001,China;Department of Interventional Vascular Surgery,Fourth Hospital of Harbin Medical University,Harbin 150000,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨医科大学附属第一医院门诊中心手术室,哈尔滨150001 [2]哈尔滨医科大学附属第四医院介入血管外科,哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《国际肿瘤学杂志》2025年第4期217-223,共7页Journal of International Oncology

摘　　要：目的分析1992—2021年中国胰腺癌的发病和死亡情况,并探讨年龄、时期和队列对胰腺癌发病和死亡的影响。方法利用全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2021数据库,分析1992—2021年中国胰腺癌发病和死亡情况,应用Joinpoint软件分析标化发病率和标化死亡率的时间变化趋势,计算平均年度变化百分比。构建年龄-时期-队列模型,分析年龄、时期和出生队列对胰腺癌发病及死亡趋势变化的影响。分析胰腺癌死亡归因于高血糖和吸烟危险因素的疾病负担。结果2021年,中国胰腺癌发病率为8.34/10万,死亡率为8.41/10万,比1992年(3.33/10万和3.43/10万)分别升高了150.45%和145.19%。从性别看,2021年男性胰腺癌发病率(9.93/10万)和死亡率(9.91/10万)均高于女性(6.68/10万和6.83/10万)。1992—2021年,中国胰腺癌标化发病率和标化死亡率均有升高趋势,分别平均每年升高0.80%和0.62%,趋势均有统计学意义(均P<0.001)。年龄效应结果显示,中国胰腺癌的发病率总体呈升高趋势,15~49岁年龄组胰腺癌发病率呈平稳升高趋势,在50岁以后胰腺癌发病率呈明显升高趋势,85岁以上年龄组达到高峰,为68.64/10万;死亡率在15~79岁年龄组呈缓慢升高趋势,在80~84岁年龄组呈明显升高趋势并达到高峰,为196.51/10万。时期效应结果显示,中国胰腺癌发病率的时期变化RR值总体呈升高趋势,以2002—2006年为参考组(RR=1),2017—2021年发病风险最高,发病风险RR=1.09(95%CI为1.05~1.13,P=0.012);胰腺癌死亡率的时期变化RR值变化趋势呈波动性,以2002—2006年为参考组(RR=1),2012—2016年死亡风险最高,死亡风险RR=1.60(95%CI为1.07~2.38,P=0.021)。队列效应结果显示,中国胰腺癌发病和死亡风险均总体随年份的增加呈升高趋势,以1952—1956年出生队列为参考队列(RR=1),1987—1991年出生队列的发病和死亡风险均最高(RR=1.18,95%CI为0.99~1.40,P=0.032;RR=1.63,95%CI为0.12~11.53,P=0.042),1992—1996年出生Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China from 1992 to 2021,and to explore the effects of age,period,and cohort on pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality.Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)2021 database were used to analyze the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China from 1992 to 2021.The Joinpoint software was applied to analyze the time trends of standardized incidence and mortality rates,and to calculate the average annual percentage change.An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age,period,and birth cohort on the trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality.The disease burden of pancreatic cancer deaths attributed to risk factors such as hyperglycemia and smoking was analyzed.Results In 2021,the incidence of pancreatic cancer in China was 8.34/100000,and the mortality rate was 8.41/100000,representing increases of 150.45%and 145.19%,respectively,compared to 1992(3.33/100000 and 3.43/100000).By sex,the incidence(9.93/100000)and mortality(9.91/100000)rates in males in 2021 were higher than those in females(6.68/100000 and 6.83/100000).From 1992 to 2021,the standardized incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in China showed upward trends,with average annual increases of 0.80%and 0.62%,respectively,both of which were statistically significant(both P<0.001).Age effect results indicated a general increasing trend in pancreatic cancer incidence,with a steady rise in the 15-49 age group,a sharp increase after the age of 50,and a peak in the over 85 age group at 68.64/100000.The mortality rate showed a slow increase in the 15-79 age group,with a marked rise and peak in the 80-84 age group at 196.51/100000.Period effect results showed an overall upward trend in the period relative risk(RR)for pancreatic cancer incidence,with the highest risk in 2017-2021(RR=1.09,95%CI:1.05-1.13,P=0.012),compared to the reference period 2002-2006(RR=1).The RR for pancreatic cancer mortality showed a fluctuating tre

关 键 词：胰腺肿瘤 中国 发病率 死亡率 

分 类 号：R735.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]