启东市老年人群恶性肿瘤50年发病趋势分析与预测  

Analysis and prediction of the 50-year incidence trend of malignant tumors in the elderly of Qidong City

作　　者：蒋明博 朱健[2] 陈永胜 王军[2] 张永辉[2] 丁璐璐 徐源佑 陈建国[2] 毛健 Jiang Mingbo;Zhu Jian;Chen Yongsheng;Wang Jun;Zhang Yonghui;Ding Lulu;Xu Yuanyou;Chen Jianguo;Mao Jian(Department of Oncology,Qidong Hospital Affiliated to Nantong University,Qidong People's Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,Qidong 226200,China;Department of Etiology,Qidong Hospital Affiliated to Nantong University,Qidong People's Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,Qidong 226200,China;Department of Interventional Radiology,Qidong Hospital Affiliated to Nantong University,Qidong People's Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学附属启东医院肿瘤科、启东市人民医院、启东肝癌防治研究所,启东226200 [2]南通大学附属启东医院病因室、启东市人民医院、启东肝癌防治研究所,启东226200 [3]南通大学附属启东医院介入血管科、启东市人民医院、启东肝癌防治研究所,启东226200

出　　处：《中华老年医学杂志》2025年第4期531-537,共7页Chinese Journal of Geriatrics

基　　金：南通市"十四五"科教强卫工程(通卫科技〔2021〕15号);南通市卫生健康委员会科研课题(MS2023121)。

摘　　要：目的分析1972—2021年启东市老年人群恶性肿瘤发病趋势并预测未来10年发病率。方法资料来源于启东癌症登记报告系统,计算粗发病率、中国人口标化发病率、世界人口标化发病率等指标。用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件进行Joinpoint回归分析,计算发病率平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)。用SAS 9.2软件时间序列分析中的ARIMA模型对未来10年发病率趋势进行预测。结果启东市老年恶性肿瘤发病共计87401人,世标率从1972—1976年的736.85/10万上升至2017—2021年的1056.33/10万,男性则从968.56/10万上升至1332.75/10万,女性从550.62/10万上升至825.44/10万,50年间的AAPC值分别为1.16%、0.94%、1.44%(均P<0.001)。发病率随年龄的增加呈上升趋势,75~79岁达发病率高峰。60~64岁、65~69岁、70~74岁、75~79岁及80岁以上年龄组发病率的AAPC值分别为0.64%、0.93%、0.92%、2.02%及2.44%(均P<0.001)。排位第1的肺癌世标率从1972—1981年的100.87/10万上升至2012—2021年的248.84/10万,排位第2的胃癌从1972—1981年的216.23/10万下降至2012—2021年的103.54/10万,排位第3的肝癌从1972—1981年的113.47/10万波动上升至2012—2021年的125.13/10万,排位第4的结直肠癌从1972—1981年的40.06/10万上升至2012—2021年的123.47/10万,排位第5的食管癌从1972—1981年的63.42/10万下降至2012—2021年的28.65/10万,50年间AAPC值依次为2.25%、-1.89%、0.36%、3.13%和-1.86%(均P<0.05)。预测至2031年,启东老年人群恶性肿瘤发病率将达到1253.84/10万(男性为1566.67/10万,女性为983.14/10万)。结论启东市老年人群恶性肿瘤发病率呈上升趋势,肺癌、胃癌、肝癌、结直肠癌和食管癌为启东市老年人群发病常见肿瘤,其中肺癌、肝癌和结直肠癌呈上升趋势,应列为肿瘤防控重点。Objective To analyze the incidence trends of malignant tumors in the elderly population aged over 60 years in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021,as well as to predict the incidence rate for the next decade.Methods Data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registry and Reporting System.The crude incidence rate(CR),age-standardized incidence rate using the Chinese standard population(ASRC),and age-standardized incidence rate based on Segi's world standard population(ASRW)were calculated.Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to determine the average annual percentage change(AAPC)in incidence.Additionally,the ARIMA model implemented in SAS 9.2 software was utilized for time series analysis to forecast incidence trends over the forthcoming 10 years.Results In Qidong City,a total of 87,401 malignant tumors were reported in the elderly population.The ASRW increased from 736.85 per 100,000 in the years 1972-1976 to 1056.33 per 100,000 in 2017-2021.Specifically,the ASRW for males rose from 968.56 per 100,000 to 1332.75 per 100,000,while the ASRW for females increased from 550.62 per 100,000 to 825.44 per 100,000,with AAPC values of 1.16%,0.94%,and 1.44%over 50 years(all P<0.001).The incidence trend exhibited an upward trajectory with age,peaking in the 75-79 age group.The AAPC values for the incidence rates in the age groups of 60-64,65-69,70-74,75-79,and those aged over 80 were 0.64%,0.93%,0.92%,2.02%,and 2.44%,respectively(all P<0.001).Among the various cancers,lung cancer,which ranked first,saw an increase in ASRW from 100.87 per 100,000 in 1972-1981 to 248.84 per 100,000 in 2012-2021.In contrast,gastric cancer,ranked second,decreased from 216.23 per 100,000 in 1972-1981 to 103.54 per 100,000 in 2012-2021.Liver cancer,ranked third,fluctuated from 113.47 per 100,000 in 1972-1981 to 125.13 per 100,000 in 2012-2021.Colorectal cancer,ranked fourth,increased from 40.06 per 100,000 in 1972-1981 to 123.47 per 100,000 in 2012-2021,while esophageal cancer,ranked fifth,decreased from 63.42 per 1

关 键 词：肿瘤 发病率 预测 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤]