吉林省春季粘虫发生预测模式研究  

Study on Forecast Models of the Spring Generation Oriental Armyworm in Jilin Province

作　　者：孙雅杰[1] 郭明智[2] 高月波[1] 陈瑞鹿[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省农业科学院植保所,吉林公主岭136100 [2]吉林省农业技术推广总站,长春130021

出　　处：《吉林农业科学》2003年第1期23-26,共4页Journal of　Jilin Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：吉林省科技发展计划资助项目

摘　　要：以我国东部粘虫Mythimnaseparata(Walker)一代成虫迁飞期公主岭地面诱蛾量和同期降雨量的数据为预测因素,该世代成虫繁殖的危害种群在吉林省的发生程度和发生面积为预测目标,应用逐步回归法研究发生预测的数学模型。用Basic语言的计算机程序完成了计算、分析、筛选、组建多元回归方程式并与历年数据拟合的过程,提出了吉林省春季粘虫的发生预测模式。The forecast elements were chosen from the data of field catches and rainfall of Gongzhuling,and the forecast targets were determined on the damage degrees and areas of outbreak of the yearly first generation adults and their next generation larvae of oriental armyworm,Mythimna separata(Walker),in Jilin province.The stepwise regression method was applied to study the forecast mathematic formula,and the computing,analysis,selecting,formation of polynomial regression equations and fitting of historical data were carry out by computer programs of Basic language.The forecast models of the spring generation oriental armyworm of Jilin province were put forward.

关 键 词：吉林 春季 粘虫 发生程度 发生面积 预测模式 逐步回归法 

分 类 号：S433.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]