脑卒中复发影响因素分析及函数预测模型  

Analysis of Risk Factors for Recurrence of Stroke and the Prognostic Models

作　　者：吴静[1] 汪培山[1] 田桂玲[2] 徐卫历[1] 刘东[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学研究室,天津300052 [2]天津医科大学总医院,天津300052 [3]天津市卫生防病中心,天津300011

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2003年第1期16-18,共3页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

摘　　要：目的研究脑卒中复发危险因素并建立复发函数预测模型。方法用 L ife- table法和 Kaplan- Meier法对随访资料进行生存分析 ,采用 COX比例风险模型进行因素分析。建立复发函数预测模型及复发判别函数 ,并对资料进行回代检验。结果年龄、主要病史、病情严重程度、出院状态、有无后遗症、是否锻炼以及社会心理因素都是影响患者复发的主要因素。复发模型为 :h(t,X) =h0 (t) exp(- 0 .90 93X1 +1.5 2 4 7X2 +0 .2 0 19X3+1.1931X4 ) ;复发判别函数为 :Y(1) =- 3.936 7+2 .170 6 X1 +4.2 893X2 +0 .9735 X3+2 .8313X4 。结论影响脑卒中复发的因素不但包括发病情况 ,而且还包括病后康复和社会心理因素。为了减少脑卒中复发 ,在积极进行治疗的同时 。Objective To investigate the risk factors and set up the prognostic models for the recurrence of stroke.Methods A follow up study was carried out with Life table and Kaplan Meier methods for survival analysis,Cox regression for factor analysis and Discriminant analysis for setting up the models.Results Cox regression showed that the important factors associated with stroke recurrence included:age,disease history,the severity of the stroke,exercise and social psychological factors,etc.The prognostic model was:h(t,X)=h 0(t)exp(-0 909 3 X 1+1 524 7 X 2+0 201 9 X 3+1 193 1 X 4);and the recurrent discriminant equation was:Y(1)= -3 936 7 +2 170 6 X 1+4 289 3 X 2+0 973 5 X 3+2 831 3 X 4.Conclusion To reduce the recurrence of the stroke,we should strengthen the rehabilitation and social support as well as the active treatment on the patients.\;

关 键 词：脑卒中 复发 影响因素 函数预测模型 社会心理因素 治疗 康复 

分 类 号：R743.3[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]