基于灰色系统理论的鼓浪屿慢旅游需求预测与分析  

On the Prediction and Analysis of Slow Tourism Needs in Gulangyu on the Basis of Grey System Theory

作　　者：刘丽梅[1] 陈雪琼[1] 魏晓宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学旅游学院

出　　处：《浙江旅游职业学院学报》2018年第2期36-41,共6页Journal of Tourism College of Zhejiang

基　　金：华侨大学研究生科研创新能力培育计划资助项目(项目编号:1611308020);福建省软科学项目“旅游跨界融合创新催生新业态的机理与路径研究”(项目编号:2018R0066)研究成果

摘　　要：文章利用灰色系统理论的灰色预测法,以2012-2017年厦门鼓浪屿所在区域游客接待量为样本数据,构建了鼓浪屿慢旅游需求预测模型,并通过残差检验法检验建模精度,从而对其旅游需求进行预测,并提出相关发展建议。研究表明,研究所构建的GM(1,1)需求预测模型适用于鼓浪屿慢旅游的中长期发展预测,未来五年内鼓浪屿慢旅游发展呈现稳固增长的态势。This paper uses the method of Grey System Prediction to analyze the sample data of tourist reception in Gulangyu from 2012-2017 and to construct a tourism need prediction model in Gulangyu. The paper also puts some suggestions concerning the prediction of tourism needs by using residual method to test modeling precision.Research results show that the GM( 1,1) prediction model constructed by our research institute applies well in Gulangyu’s medium and long-term prediction. The model predicts that the slow tourism in Gulangyu will have stable growth in the next 5 years.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 慢旅游需求 预测 残差检验法 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]