基于灰色GM(1,1)及其改进型模型的短期电力负荷预报  

Forecast of electric load based on GM(1,1) and its improved model

作　　者：张颖[1] 朱陶业[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙电力学院,湖南长沙410077

出　　处：《电工电能新技术》2003年第2期23-25,共3页Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy

摘　　要：运用ARIMA(p,d,q)模型和灰色理论中的GM(1,1)改进模型组合预测负荷。同时,对气候温度急变日负荷预测值进行特殊处理,提高了负荷预报精度。经对某地区电网的实际编程及运行检验,该模型的预报准确度满足了用户要求。The ARIMA(p,d,q) model and its improved GM(1,1) model are used to forecast the electric load.In addition,through special processing of the forecast value caused by sudden change of weather, the accuracy has been raised. By drawing up a practical program as well as detection of the running process to certain area power network , the accuracy of the model meets the needs of the customer.

关 键 词：电力系统 短期负荷预报 灰色理论 ARIMA(p d q)模型 GM(1 1)模型 电网 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]