利率对农村家庭贷款决策的影响——基于带删失的Probit模型及Tobit模型的实证分析  

Research on the Influence of Interest Rate on Rural Households' Lending Decisions: Empirical Analysis Based on Probit Model with Censoring and Tobit Model

作　　者：张宁[1] 张兵[1,2] 周明栋[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学金融学院,江苏南京210095 [2]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031 [3]中国人民银行宿迁市中心支行,江苏宿迁223800

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第5期79-86 140,140,共9页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"农村非正规金融的收入效应及其正规化研究"(71403124)

摘　　要：在我国农村金融改革及利率市场化步伐加快的背景下,本文利用江苏省农村地区1202户家庭的调研数据实证检验了利率对农村家庭贷款决策的影响。与已有研究相比,除了正规金融市场,本文还分析了非正规金融市场利率的影响,由于非正规金融是农村重要的融资渠道之一,本研究具有较强的现实意义。研究发现:(1)利率对农村家庭的贷款需求影响是显著的,利率越低,农村家庭形成有效贷款需求的概率越大;(2)非正规贷款与正规贷款的利率差对农村家庭贷款途径的选择影响显著,基于血缘、地缘和业缘的非正规贷款得益于信息透明、交易成本低、无时滞、期限灵活,其与正规贷款的利率差越小,家庭选择借入非正规贷款的概率越大;(3)利率对农村家庭的非正规贷款规模影响是显著的,非正规贷款利率越高,家庭贷款规模越小,而正规贷款利率对其规模的影响则并不显著。Under the background of the rural financial reform and the acceleration of marketization of interest rate,and based on the survey of 1,202 households in Jiangsu Province,this paper analyzes the influence of interest rate on the rural households' lending decisions empirically. The results show that the influence of interest rate on loans' demand is significant,and the lower the interest rate,the greater the probability of rural families to form effective loan demand; the loan interest rate differentials between informal lending and the bank have a significant impact on rural household borrowing ways and the smaller the gap,the greater the probability of informal lending; rate's impact on informal lending scale is significant,but not so for formal loan.

关 键 词：正规贷款 非正规贷款 利率 农村家庭 贷款决策 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F224