高血压危险因素分类树分析  

Classification tree analysis on risk factors of essential hypertension

作　　者：贾崇奇[1] 赵仲堂[1] 王立华[2] 郝风荣[1] 冯月秋[1] 王束玫[1] 徐晓菲[1] 贾存显[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,济南250012 [2]济钢职工总医院二区分院

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2003年第6期684-685,共2页Chinese Journal of Public Health

摘　　要：目的　探讨高血压的主要危险因素与高危人群 ,为高血压的防制提供理论依据。方法　采用以社区人群为基础的病例对照研究 ;以某工厂人群中筛检出的、未经药物系统治疗的 1 1 6名高血压患者及 1 36名血压正常健康者为研究对象 ;运用分类树分析探讨高血压的主要危险因素与高危人群。结果　高血压的主要危险因素为 :超重、中心型肥胖、饮酒、吸烟、高血脂症、年龄与性别。高血压主要高危人群为 :(1 )超重 +中心型肥胖 +饮酒者 ;(2 )超重 +中心型肥胖 +高年龄及其男性吸烟者 ;(3)超重 +高血脂症者 ;(4)中心型肥胖 +饮酒 +吸烟者。上述高危人群病例数占总病例数的 82 76 %。以学习集的分类结果为 :灵敏度为 82 76 % ,特异度为 74 2 6 % ;以检验集的分类结果为 :灵敏度为 71 55 % ,特异度为 61 0 3 %。结论　对高血压不同高危人群应采取不同的防制措施 ;控制体重、饮酒、血脂水平。Objective To study the major risk factors and high risk population of essential hypertension.Methods The community-based case-control study was used.116 essential hypertensives,screened from a steel factory workers,not taking hypertensive medication,and 136 normotensives,screened from health workers in the same factory were selected as the subjects in this study.Classification tree analysis was performed to analyze the data.Results The important risk factors of essential hypertension were BMI,WHR,alcohol drinking,cigarette smoking,hyperlipidemia,age,and sex.The major high risk population were that (1) people with overweight,centralized obesity,and alcohol drinking;(2) people with overweight,centralized obesity,old age,and male smoking cigarette;(3) people with overweight and hyperlipidemia;(4) people with centralized obesity,alcohol drinking,and cigarette smoking.The major high risk population were about 82.76% of the total cases in this study.The results of classification using learning sample were as follows:sensitivity was 82.76% and specificity was 74 26%;When using test sample,sensitivity was 71.55% and specificity was 61 03%.Conclusion Different kinds of preventive measures should be taken according to the different types of high risk population of essential hypertension.In general population,to control the body weight and alcohol drinking,to abstain from cigarette smoking,and to control the levels of serum lipids should be important for hypertensive prevention.

关 键 词：高血压 分类树 回归树 危险因素 

分 类 号：R544.102[医药卫生—心血管疾病]