Fuzzy指数模型及其在电话量预测中的应用  

Fuzzy Exponential Model and Its Application in Forecasting Telephone Amount

作　　者：曹炳元[1] 

机构地区：[1]汕头大学数学系,汕头515063

出　　处：《汕头大学学报（自然科学版）》2003年第2期1-6,共6页Journal of Shantou University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目 ( No.70 2 71 0 47和 No.79670 0 1 2 );汕头大学"2 1 1"工程应用数学重点学科项目;汕头大学李嘉诚科学发展基金;汕头大学科学基金项目

摘　　要：实际获取的长途电话量一般是以区间形式表现的模糊数据 .若以此类数据建立的模型作预测 ,会获得较准确的预测结果 .本文建立了含 fuzzy参数的电话量预测的指数模型 ,并将模型非 fuzzy化和线性化两步后加以确定 .所建立的模型更符合信息系统的一般规律 ,比经典模型包含的信息量更多 .实例表明 ,本文模型适合应用于电话量的预测 .The long-distance telephone amount obtained practically is fuzzy data generally in the form of intervals.A more accurate forecasting result can be acquired if a model built by such data is used to forecast.This paper establishes an exponential model with fuzzy parameters in forecasting telephone amount as well as gives determination after two steps of its non-fuzzification and linearization.The built model tallies more with the general character of information system and contains more information than a classical one.The factor indicates that the model here is more suitable for forecasting of the telephone amount.

关 键 词：长途电话 话务量预测 Fuzzy指数模型 非fuzzy化 线性化 隶属函数 

分 类 号：TN916.1[电子电信—通信与信息系统] O159[电子电信—信息与通信工程]